Global Intraday Moves

Cantor Opening Call The FTSE is called up around 10 points higher today

UK Corporate Announcements Close Brothers announces a full year adjusted pre-tax profit of £134.2m up 27% and states that it is well positioned for the current financial year Daily Mail states that it sees full year results in line with the expectations Hargreaves announces a full year adjusted pre-tax profit of £47.5m on revenues of £688.3m up 24.6% Euromoney states that trading has been in line with the forecasts Hornby warns that it will not achieve forecasts for the current full year citing lower than expected sales of London 2012 merchandise

UK Market News Reports continues of a possible Russian bid to buy out BP from its troubled TNK BP unit Diageo announces that it is in talks to take a stake in United Spirits, but states that there was no certainty that the talks will lead to a deal David Cameron is to speak at the UN in New York later today and then arguably later on has the more important role of appearing as a guest on Late Night with David Letterman Cairn Energy is in the news on reports that it is selling a $940m stake in Cairn India and details today that it has sold 8% of its stake, leaving a 10% holding Bumi details that its former CEO Ari Hudaya has quit the board, after the probe into accounting irregularities at its Indonesian operations announced yesterday Reports suggest that Temasek the Singapore government owned fund is looking to sell its 18% stake in Standard Chartered The Times suggests that Tesco is to reduce coupon promotions and instead focus on personalised offers

UK Analyst Upgrades Anite Rated New Equalweight At Barclays; Pt 140P Intertek Rated New Hold At Socgen, Pt 3,040P Mitie Group Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 345p Spirent Rated New Overweight At Barclays; Pt 195P

UK Analyst Cuts Bumi Cut to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura C&W Communications Cut To Sell From Hold At Liberum

UK Insider Buying Cls Holdings Plc, (CLI), 1 insider(s) bought 1,368 shares, £7

UK Insider Selling IG Group Holdings Plc, (IGG), 1 insider(s) sold 156,012 shares, £4.52 Pennon Group Plc, (PNN),  insider(s) sold 2,700 shares, £7.43

FTSE 100 Movers Yesterday

Major European Companies Reporting Mediobanca SpA, R, 0.451

European Market Summary The IMF has cut its forecasts and urges again that the European authorities need to deliver Spain is due to sell 3 and 6 month bills at 10:30 and Italy sells up to €4bn Bonds at 11:00

S&P 500 Companies Reporting Carnival Corp, Q3, 1.436,  Jabil Circuit Inc, Q4, 0.583 S&P 500 Ex Dividends (gross):- Philip Morris International Inc, PM, (0.85), Zimmer Holdings Inc, ZMH, (0.18)

Major US Stock Movers After Hours MarketAxess gains 1.7% after hours as the S&P announces it will replace Par Pharm. In the S&P 500 SmallCap 600 Radioshack came off 2.6% as S&P details that it will exit the S&P 1500 Caterpillar announces that it is cutting its 2015 target range and its CEO states that he does not see a big rash of M&A opportunities and fell 2% after hours, it is the world’s largest construction and mining equipment maker

US Market News S&P details that ADT and Pentair are to join the S&P 500 replacing Lexmark and Devry Verizon announces that it is paying TiVo $250m to settle patent litigation claims, the stock gained 4% in late trading on the news The Fed’s Williams states that the US housing market remains depressed The FT details how Google has been attempting to follow Apple’s high profile gains, as Google’s shares have reached a fresh all time high of their own, closing at $749.38, up 30% since July, Apple shares have steadily been posting fresh all time highs but closed down $9 at $690 as it details 5m iPhone 5 were sold in the opening week, positive but under some of the stellar forecasts

Overnight Market News Samsung has alleged jury misconduct in its recent patent case with Apple in the US The ex Chairman of Olympus has pleaded guilty to covering up losses at the camera maker China has increased the quotas allowing foreign investors to buy its benchmark stock index, as it trades down at three year lows, and is off over 36% from the 2010 highs

Major Global IPOs Due Today AP Co Co Ltd, (3175), 0.545m, JPY 2350 Clinigen Healthcare Ltd, (0193150Z), 30.5m, GBp 164 Jason Parquet Holdings Ltd, (JPH), 33.8m, SGD 0.225 Modacom Co Ltd, (149940), 0.7m, KRW 7000 - 8500

FX Summary Israel’s central bank has left its interest unchanged overnight Some German lawmakers again cannot refrain from commenting on the lack of a decision from Spain to ask for a full bailout or not, with the spokesman for the Christian Democratic Union stating that ‘Rajoy evidently has a communication problem, if he needs help he must say so’

Commodity Summary Silver holds in exchange traded products have moved to within 0.6% of all time records, as the metal looks set to match the moves posted by gold and platinum

Economic Data Due 15:00 US September Consumer Confidence, 63.0 exp. 60.6 previous

Economic Events IMF Financial Stability Report Geithner speaks at Clinton Initiative

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UK Analyst Upgrades

Cantor Opening Call The FTSE is called to open around 25 points higher today

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Cantor Opening Call

Cantor Opening Call The FTSE is called to open around unchanged today Global Intraday Moves UK Corporate Announcements Debenhams announces it sees a full year pre-tax profit in line with the expectations, and that its strategy is starting to work and that its modernised stores are performing well, and its profit is ahead of last year JD Sports reports an H1 adjusted pre-tax profit of £556m up 26.4% and a pre-tax profit of £2.9m from £20.1m Galliford Try announces full year revenues of £1.5bn and a full year pre-tax profit of £63.1m from £35.1m UK Market News The FT suggests that Airbus has been touted as a possible name for any combination of EADS and BAE Systems, although a French minister has stated that a lot of questions remain on any deal Cable & Wireless has reportedly started talks to sell its group of remote island networks for as much as $1bn Lonmin’s talks with striking South African miners are still ‘far apart’ according to a government mediator UK Analyst Upgrades Unilever Plc Rated New Buy At Berenberg; Pt Gbp27.00 Unilever Nv Raised To Buy From Hold At Berenberg UK Analyst Cuts Aegis Cut To Neutral From Buy At Nomura Aviva Cut To Hold Vs Buy At Deutsche Bank Dunelm Cut To Hold Vs Buy At Deutsche Bank Electrocomponents Cut To Underperform Vs Sector Perform At Rbc UK Insider Buying Computacenter Plc, (CCC), 1 insider(s) bought 20,000 shares, £4.02 Sig Plc, (SHI), 1 insider(s) bought 116 shares, £1.07 UK Insider Selling British Land Co Plc, (BLND),  insider(s) sold 30,000 shares, £1.38 Legal & General Group, (LGEN),  insider(s) sold 124,954 shares, £2.57 Premier Oil Plc, (PMO), 1 insider(s) sold 149,303 shares, £3.83 FTSE 100 Movers Yesterday Major European Companies Reporting None Detailed European Market Summary The Irish Times suggests that the government could issue 40 year bonds to save state billions tied up in Anglo Irish Bank ECB governing council member Coene has stated that rising bond yields may yet force Spain to ask for formal aid and submit to the ECB’s conditions for granting it Spain is due to sell 12 and 18 month bills today, while the EFSF is to sell up to €2bn in bills The trial of the former UBS rogue trader continues and details show how he lost over £125,000 with his own account at IG Index, an account he held outside of the banks rules The FT writes that as much as $64bn is seen exiting Swiss banks as international authorities increase the pressure on tax evasion S&P 500 Companies Reporting FedEx Corp, Q1, 1.407 S&P 500 Ex Dividends (gross):-  International Game Technology, IGT, (.06),  Safeway Inc, SWY, (.175),  Tiffany & Co, TIF, (.32),  Total System Services Inc, TSS, (.10),  Xcel Energy Inc, XEL, (.27) Major US Stock Movers After Hours OxiGene gained a hefty 45% after hours as it announces it had been given the approval for a special protocol assessment on its thyroid cancer treatment HNI fell around 10% after hours as it details softer demand on office furniture Advanced Micro Devices also came off over 10% as it announces that its CFO is to leave to seek other opportunities OCZ Technology also came off around 8% as its CEO announces that he has quit US Market News Apple’s shares gained to over $700 in after-hours trading, up to a fresh record as the initial iPhone sales numbers have met the high expectations, the stock is now up over 70% this year Peregrine Financial’s CEO remains behind bars while the judge evaluates the flight risk over releasing him ahead of his trial, where he has already pleaded guilty to fraud Overnight Market News US based Dole Foods announces it is to sell assets to Itochu for $1.65bn in cash Anti Japanese protests in China have gathered pace as the arguments over the disputed islands continues to impact upon the $340bn in trade between the two nations, September 18th is also the anniversary of Japanese occupation of parts of mainland China in 1931 Major Global IPOs Due Today Hot Pot PCL, (HOTPOT), 101.985m, THB 2.8 PharmaEngine Inc, (4162), 10.013m, TWD 86 Selectcore Ltd, (SCG), 55.56m, CAD 0.09 FX Summary The Sri Lankan Central bank has left rates unchanged The Aussie dollar has weakened a touch after the release of the RBA meeting minutes, as they cited how officials were concerned that the strong currency could damage the economy, increasing talk of possible rate cuts ahead Moody’s has cut its ratings outlook on Argentina to negative from stable Commodity Summary Oil posted some quite sharp falls intraday yesterday, around 2.4%, leading some to even suggest a major ‘fat finger’ event had occurred somewhere to trigger the selling, although the exchanges have played down the talk, leaving rumours on a possible strategic reserve release the major factor Fortescue Metals gained yesterday after it secured $4.5bn in new loans, reducing fears that it would need to sell assets, or undertake a capital raising Bloomberg details how Gold prices in recent months have continued a historically high correlation with inflation expectations, and a recent spike in inflation expectations is suggesting gold is due a move back to its all time highs, with moves to $2,000 Economic Data Due 09:30 UK August CPI, 0.5% exp. 0.1% previous 10:00 German September ZEW Survey -20 exp. -25.5 previous Economic Events None Detailed German ZEW

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FTSE 100 Report

FTSE 100, Daily, Candle Last week we felt that the FTSE was looking solid in the near term trading range, red region, and that the probability looked highest for a continued move to the upper end of this channel. So the moves in the past few days have been largely as expected. What is interesting is how the FTSE remains well under its 2011 highs and even under its March 2012 highs. This is interesting as the S&P 500 has broken its 2011 highs, and is now just 100 points under its all time highs around 1565. Simple Dow Theory tells us to remain cautious while two major indices fail to confirm higher highs. So while the FTSE stays under its long term resistance we feel the UK investors remain less confident on the outlook. This outlook naturally will be affected by the more active QE in the US, when compared to the Bank of England, and the resultant impact on sterling. This notwithstanding we would still classify the FTSE as being lifted up by the S&P 500, rather than the FTSE 100 powering on upwards under its own momentum. However we would still suspect that the FTSE is likely to follow the S&P 500 and post fresh multi year highs in the coming weeks. The longer term question is whether the buyers will start to dry up if/when the FTSE manages to break back above the 6,000 area. We would suspect that investors would become increasingly nervous on such a move and we would expect to see funds switching funds into other asset classes on any such break higher. In summary then the FTSE has continued to post a solid H2 recovery and the index remains in a strong near term bullish trend, red region. Leaving an optimistic view for the remainder of Q3, for now. Breaks under the trading range would be required to turn more negative. Current levels do look vulnerable to some profit taking, however shorting here would be unadvisable due to the strong underlying trend. 6,000 is looming, after an expected near term spell of profit taking. FTSE 100, Weekly, Candle Last Updated, September 10th, 2012 The situation on the Weekly chart will take some time to change greatly, so the text below may remain broadly same week to week unless major levels are broken. As with the monthly chart below however we will update the graph each week, and post all the text so that new readers will have all the information to hand. For the Weekly chart we can see how the FTSE 100 has clearly had a hard time breaking up through the 6,000 area over the past couple of years. We can also see how the current price action could well be the price moving down the right shoulder of a 'head and shoulder' pattern. It is much too early to call this pattern formally here, as the neckline would need to be breached, around 4,775, but it is still worth noting as this could result in medium term nervousness. Also in recent weeks the S&P 500 and the Dow  have both posted higher medium term highs, suggesting the FTSE is set to do the same, which would of course negate any possible bearish H&S. Also on this chart we have drawn some potential Elliot Wave counts. With the 2009 to 2011 move being a five wave impulse wave, and the resultant correction the traditional abc pattern. This labelling follows the standard Elliot convention that Wave 4 must not overlap with Wave 1. Also as is typical the abc correction has found support from the end of Wave 4. One method in using Elliot Waves is to create a trading channel off waves 2,4 and projecting the parallel higher. Wave c of the reaction broke through this support and also interestingly found support off the 50% retracement level, central green line. While the price action is under the 2011 highs trend followers will be concerned over whether the current trading range, red region, is the start of a fresh 5 wave impulse wave higher, or part of a more complex WXY correction. So in the interim we can see the current trading range, red region, dominating the trading mood, with a positive bias, with any breaks above the 2011 highs allowing more significant long term upside objectives to be drawn. FTSE 100, Monthly, OHLC Last Updated, August 13th, 2012 The monthly timescale naturally takes the long term view so the commentary in this section will only be updated as when market events dictate. So regular readers of this report will only need to read the monthly and weekly sections on a relatively infrequent basis. However we include all the information to give new readers the full picture. The Monthly graph for the FTSE 100 quite clearly shows how the index posted an extremely powerful move into the end of the last century, red line. From the all time highs in the index at 6950 the FTSE slumped 50% to the 2003 lows. In hindsight we can see this move as an understandable and even justifiable re-examination of the strong gains posted in the previous 20-30 years. The market currently remains well above these lows, which tells us that the Eurozone sovereign debt issues, technically at least, are not as significant as the general press would have us believe. The FTSE remains in a trendless state, having posted lower highs in 2007, and higher lows in 2008, black lines. The retracement levels calculated from the all time highs to the 2003 lows create some interesting levels. We suspect that these levels will continue to be of use for the quarters ahead, a break back under the 61.8% level would suggest a new trading range between 4367-5215 would be possible. This area also coincides with the possible neckline of a major bearish H&S Pattern. Which would suggest strong support seen on any weakness down to 4775. In summary then the FTSE 100 remains in a trendless state over the long term, with lower highs and higher lows, trading in the shadow of the TMT sell-off. Currently the index is seen to have a downward bias within this retracement channel, towards the 5200 area, (the upper retracement level), but that on any such weakness strong support would be expected and it remains more neutral in its outlook than the more optimistic S&P 500 and Dow. Dow Graph, Quarterly Above is just a quick chart on Dow, highlighting that despite the wider market nervousness the Dow has pushed on towards its all time highs. This long term chart highlights how the index took a few attempts to break through the 1,000 area during the 1960’s-1980’s. Then posted an extreme move higher to the end of the millennium. This move is all the more powerful as this is a semi-log chart. Unlike the FTSE the Dow posted fresh all time highs in 2007, so the Dow has posted a long term broadening pattern, compared to the FTSE 100 which has posted a tightening formation over this period. So the long term bulls will be hoping that the Dow can push through its major long term highs and post a bull trend comparable to that seen in the 1980-2005 period. While bears will feel the index will fail at this current attempt and more closely match the series of failures posted between 1965-1985. S&P 500 Monthly Chart Updated September 10th, 2012, On the S&P graph we can see how the broader index has attempted to follow the Dow higher, and has now confirmed the Dow as it has to has post fresh multi year highs. Using basic Dow Theory this confirmation between these two broad equity indices highlights the current positivity in the market. What is also worth noting is that the US index has posted a stronger longer term bullish trading range, red region, compared to the flatter trading range set up on the FTSE. So currently the Most bullish index is the Dow, then the S&P with the FTSE bringing up the rear. If the FTSE was able to post fresh multi year highs, confirming the more optimistic US indices, then we could see traders looking to buy the FTSE and selling either the S&P or the Dow looking for this longer term divergence to unwind. However the FTSE would need to confirm the bullish outlook first and this position should not be entered pre-emptively as these conditions could remain in place for some time.

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Make your Move to Zero Spreads

Cantor Opening Call The FTSE is called to open around unchanged today, ahead of the Fed rate announcement due at 17:30 and the press conference to follow at 19:15 Global Intraday Moves UK Corporate Announcements Next announces H1 pre-tax profit of £251m just ahead of the analysts estimates on revenues of £1.64bn and states that it made a better than expected start to the year and maintains its full year targets Kier Group states that it expects trading conditions to remain demanding, as it announces a full year pre-tax profit of £70m in line with the forecasts Home Retail states that it stays confident its profit will be in line with the expectations, as it details Q2 sales of £366m, and Argos sales of £867m and that full year profit will depend on Christmas at Argos Premier Farnell announces Q2 revenues of £238m and a pre-tax profit of £18.4m down 20% Petard group states that its board remains optimistic on its future Imagination Technology states that it stays confident on continued progress ahead as its momentum has continued Darty announces that all markets have remained challenging and that it will announce the results of its review in December and that its CEO is to leave Dunelm announces full year sales of £603.7m and an operating profit of £95.2m and proposes further capital returns of £65m UK Market News The FTSE Quarterly Review Committee confirmed yesterday evening that Ashmore and ICAP are to leave the FTSE 100, to be replaced by Melrose and Wood Group, with LSE, Aegis, Travis Perkins, Inmarsat, Tui Travel and Informa on the reserve list, changes will be made to the index on the close Friday 21, September Amongst UK stocks BAE Systems stays the major story after it gained strongly yesterday on the proposed tie up with EADS, with a put up, or shut up deadline of October 10 The Telegraph highlights how former HBOS director Peter Cummings has been banned from working in the city for life, and fined £500,000, for his role in the banks near collapse While the incoming chief of Barclays has called on regulators to end 'unfair' free banking UK sells £3.5bn in Bonds at 10:30 UK Analyst Upgrades Centamin Raised To Buy Vs Neutral At Citi Glanbia Rated New 'Buy' at Jefferies Signet Jewelers Rated New Buy At Citi, Pt $60 WPP Raised To Hold From Underperform At Jefferies UK Analyst Cuts BAE Cut At Socgen On Earnings, Announced Before EADS Deal UK Insider Buying Burberry Group Plc, (BRBY), 7 insider(s) bought 84,031 shares, £10.91 Barratt Developments P, (BDEV), 1 insider(s) bought 20,000 shares, £1.61 Tribal Group Plc, (TRB), 2 insider(s) bought 151,364 shares, £0.92   UK Insider Selling Centrica Plc, (CNA),  insider(s) sold 23,487 shares, £3.3 Hays Plc, (HAS), 1 insider(s) sold 11,088 shares, £0.78 Jardine Lloyd Thompson, (JLT), 1 insider(s) sold 40,262 shares, £7.47 Pennon Group Plc, (PNN),  insider(s) sold 5,000 shares, £7.28 FTSE 100 Movers Yesterday Major European Companies Reporting Swiss Prime Site AG, S1, 0,Next PLC, S1, 1.071 European Market Summary Sources suggest that France is putting some pressure on Spain to ignore threats from German lawmakers and request formal aid from the EU The Irish Times states that the state is unlikely to meet the bank deal deadline Talanx, Germany’s third largest insurer, announces that it has cancelled its planned €700m IPO, citing weak demand and that it would not sell at just any price Italy sells up to €6bn in bonds at 10:00 S&P 500 Companies Reporting None Detailed S&P 500 Ex Dividends (gross):-  Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc, DPS, (.34),  DTE Energy Co, DTE, (.62),  Hess Corp, HES, (.10),  HJ Heinz Co, HNZ, (.515),  Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH, HBAN, (.04),  Mead Johnson Nutrition Co, MJN, (.30),  Merck & Co Inc, MRK, (.42),  Range Resources Corp, RRC, (.04),  Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, TMO, (.13) Major US Stock Movers After Hours HFF Inc gained 3% in late trading as it was announced it was moving into the S&P Smallcap 600 US Market News Apple will dominate the tone early in the session as its share price moves will be closely watched following the launch of the taller, thinner iPhone 5 yesterday, which could become the fastest selling technology gadget in history This afternoon the emphasis will shift to the Fed rate announcement with an unchanged stance expected, the major focus will be on Bernanke’s press conference at 19:15 as the markets awaits any detail on possible QEIII Manhattan vacancy rates in August moved up to the highest level for three years as higher prices crimps demand US authorities now suggest that the US ambassador killed in Libya may have died as a result of a pre-planned terrorist attack Overnight Market News Former China central bank governor has stated that the yuan would probably move to a fully convertible currency by 2015 The official Xinhua news agency has stated that the talked about ‘massive’ stimulus measures would hurt long term growth and that the government hesitation in making such bold moves was pragmatic Nissan’s CEO has stated that the group is preparing for a mediocre few years ahead in its European markets but does not expect any kind of Armageddon The world is unsure of the whereabouts, or state of health, of the man who was tipped to become arguably the second most powerful man on earth, vice president Xi Jinping is yet to publicly appear for over a week, with just rumours left to fill the vacuum, doing immense damage to the reputation of Chinese diplomacy Major Global IPOs Due Today Discovery 2012 Flow-Through LP, (0216104D), 2m, CAD 25 Nirvana Development Tbk PT, (NIRO), 6000m, IDR 105 FX Summary New Zealand’s central bank has left rates unchanged at 2.5%, in line with the consensus The Bank of Korea has left interest rates unchanged at 3% also in line The dollar is still down towards four month lows against the euro today ahead of the Fed rate announcement due this afternoon Commodity Summary Corn prices came off 0.6% as the US Dept. of Agriculture lifts its estimates of US and world inventories, as users have switched to alternatives in recent weeks after the drought conditions in much of the US mid west Economic Data Due 13:30 US August PPI, 1.0% exp. 0.3% previous 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims, 370k exp. 365 previous 17:30 US FOMC Rate Decision, 0.25% unchanged exp. Economic Events Hollande speaks at LH Forum World Bank Global Financial Position Report 19:15 Ben Bernanke Press Conference 17:30 US FOMC Rate Decision

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