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Day Ahead

Wednesday, 31 July 2013


Wednesday, July 31, 2013, Marketing Communication
Opening Call
  • The FTSE is seen opening up around 10 points higher today
Cantor Capital Markets Image
UK Corporate Announcements
  • Diageo details a full year operating profit of £3.53bn, in line, on net sales of £11.43bn and recommends a 9% increase in its final dividend
  • Taylor Wimpey reports an H1 pre-tax profit of £109m from £76.7m on revenues of £1bn from £906m
  • Tullow Oil announces H1 results largely in line with the forecasts, with H1 sales up 15% to $1.35bn and states it has found enough oil in Kenya to start developing fields
  • British American Tobacco announces an H1 adjusted operating profit of £2.94bn, largely in line, with cigarette volumes down 3.4%
  • Moneysupermarket.com reports a 6m adjusted EBITDA of £39.9m on revenues of £112.3m and states that it stays confident on its long term prospects
  • WS Atkins states that its European business has had a steady start to the year, and is trading in line
  • Diageo details a full year operating growth of 8% and net sales growth of 5%
  • Centrica states that it remains on track to meet its full year earnings targets despite the challenging market conditions
  • Rightmove announces H1 revenues gained 16% to £67.2m and an underlying operating profit of £49m up 15%
  • Millenium & Copthorne states that trading overall is in line but stays cautious on the outlook for hospitality markets
  • St James Place reports an H1 pre-tax profit of £90.1m and an NAV of 165.8p with funds managed up to £39.9bn
UK News
  • The Telegraph writes on how three of the UK’s leading economists feel that the UK economy is close to 'escape velocity'
  • BT is seen planning to split its BT Retail division as part of a restructuring, as it looks to increase focus on competitors such as BSkyB
  • The Times writes on how Whitehall officials believe that a Cabinet Office inquiry into the former senior management of the SFO was deliberately misled
  • BP details that it has now allocated virtually all of the $20bn compensation fund for Deepwater Horizon, increasing concerns that future profits may yet be impacted
UK Analyst Changes
  • Aberdeen Asset Management Raised To Buy Vs Hold At Socgen
  • Barclays Cut To Hold Vs Buy At Socgen
  • Bp Pt Cut To 530P Vs 540P At Bofaml; Kept At Buy
  • Gkn Plc Raised To Overweight Vs Neutral At Jpmorgan
  • Gkn Pt Raised To 370P Vs 350P At Bofaml; Kept At Buy
  • Next Cut To Hold Vs Buy At Deutsche Bank
  • Sthree Plc Cut To Sector Perform Vs Outperform At Rbc
  • Telecity Cut To Neutral Vs Buy At Ubs
UK Insider Buying
  • Wolseley Plc, (WOS), 1 insider(s) bought 3250 shares, £31.5
  • Wincanton Plc, (WIN), 1 insider(s) bought 25000 shares, £0.74
UK Insider Selling
  • Domino's Pizza Group P, (DOM),  insider(s) sold 70000 shares, £5.78
  • Hogg Robinson Group P, (HRG),  insider(s) sold 2701750 shares, £0.7
  • Reckitt Benckiser Grou, (RB/),  insider(s) sold 345 shares, £46.99
FTSE 100 Movers
Major European Companies Reporting
  • Banco Comercial Portugues SA, S1, 0,  Danone SA, S1, 1.479,  Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion SA, S1, 0,  Galp Energia SGPS SA, S1, 0,  Hammerson PLC, S1, 0.117,  Intertek Group PLC, S1, 0.629,  JCDecaux SA, S1, 0.38,  Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC, S1, 1.184,  Ryanair Holdings PLC, Q1, 0.061,  Sika AG, S1, 54.65,  TNT Express NV, Q2, 0.077
European Market Summary
  • Alcatel-Lucent is selling a small stake of itself to Qualcomm as it looks to attract new technology investors to lift its R&D development
  • The EU yesterday agreed to give Peugeot Citroen’s in house banking arm a financial guarantee from the French state
  • Germany sells €2bn in Bonds at 11:30
Global Market Footprint
Major US Stock Movers After Hours
  • Cubist Pharm. announces it is buying Trius Therapeutics for $13.50, around $700m in cash, with Trius up 17% after hours on the news
  • Jive Software fell 17.5% as it announces full year revenues of $144-146m, under the forecasts as it also detailed a wider than expected Q3 EPS
S&P 500 Companies Reporting
  • Anadarko Petroleum Corp, Q2, 0.905,  Eastman Chemical Co, Q2, 1.634,  Express Scripts Holding Co, Q2, 1.103,  FMC Corp, Q2, 0.94,  Franklin Resources Inc, Q3, 0.848,  Hartford Financial Services Group Inc, Q2, 0.71,  Jacobs Engineering Group Inc, Q3, 0.841,  Loews Corp, Q2, 0.73,  Masco Corp, Q2, 0.198,  Northeast Utilities, Q2, 0.519,  Plum Creek Timber Co Inc, Q2, 0.234,  Roper Industries Inc, Q2, 1.297,  Simon Property Group Inc, Q2, 2.07,  XL Group PLC, Q2, 0.611
US Market News
  • US regulators continue to make arrests around its investigations into SAC Capital, as another outside analyst has been accused of passing illegal tips to SAC, Sandeep Aggarwal formerly a technology stock analyst at Collins Stewart
  • Chevron has seen organising a senior legal team to target Steven Donziger who won an $18bn case over oil spills in jungle in Ecuador, but Chevron now alleges that he manipulated evidence and bribed judges
  • The NY Times details how after a successful court ruling US government authorities can now extract historical location data from mobile phones without a search warrant
Overnight Market News
  • Bloomberg details how only Greece’s stock market has fallen by more than the Shanghai Composite Index, as it still trades 43% off its al time highs as the government continues in its efforts to rein in the £1.6tn lending boom seen in 2009
  • HTC has traded lower as it warns that it may make an operating loss in the current quarter, its first ever, it dropped 7% overnight
Top FX
  • The pound continues its recent slide on the expectation that the Bank of England tomorrow will continue to state that it prefers additional stimulus
  • Bloomberg details the increasing practice of ‘Scraping’ in Venezuela where international travellers have their credit card swiped locally to receive dollars, charged at the official rate of 6.3 bolivars/dollar. But can then sell the dollars at the street rate, illegally, at 29 to 1
Top Commodity
  • Potash is the leading commodity story after Uralkali pulls out of one of the larger cartels in the sector, as it alleges others in the partnership of violating an agreement
Economic Data Due
  • 09:30 UK June Mortgage Approvals, 59.2k exp. 58.2k previous
  • 15:00 US June Pending Home Sales m/m, -1.2% exp. 6.7% previous
Economic Events
  • No Major Events Detailed
UK Mortgage Approvals
CFD Sales/Traders
  • 0044 (0) 207 894 8883
  • cfdsales@cantor.com
Equity Spread Bet Sales
  • 0044 (0) 207 894 8800
  • sales@cantorcapital.com
Footnotes
  • FTSE 100 Call as at 6:45am
  • Analyst Changes, as at 6:30am
  • Times given are UK Local Time, (GMT or GMT +1 during BST)
  • Insider Deals data compiled from Director/PDMR Shareholding forms published in the past 24 hours (ex weekends).
  • Major European Companies defined as those companies in the STOXX Europe 600 Index
  • FTSE 100 Movers, Blue >0.25%, Green <0.25% > -0.25%, Red < -0.25%, Font size dependent on percentage size of move
  • This note is compiled using information / charts from financial data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters, as well as from the general financial / business media
Regulatory Disclaimer
This market commentary note (“note”) has been issued by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Cantor Capital and Cantor Index are trading names of CFE. This note is defined by the FCA as a marketing communication. This note has been prepared and distributed for information purposes only and represents the personal views and opinions of the sender. This note is not “investment research”, a “research recommendation” or a product of the Research Department. Please be aware that the CFE Research Department may issue a formal recommendation and target price on the stocks mentioned, which may differ from the opinion given here.  This note may contain information obtained by CFE from third parties; the source of information will usually be disclosed.  CFE makes no representation and gives no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this note. Any person placing reliance upon this note does so at their own risk. Investors should consider this note as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The investment discussed in this note may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. CFE, its officers, employees and affiliates shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs or claims howsoever arising from any inaccuracies or omissions in this note or any reliance on this note. The recipient is strongly recommended to see independent legal, tax and financial advice. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this note relates; either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors.
This note should not be considered to be a solicitation nor an offer of advice for the purposes of the sale or purchase of any security, investment or derivative.  The information contained in this note is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision and should not be considered a recommendation by CFE or any other person in relation to any of the companies, stock, commodities, currencies or other markets mentioned / referred to in this note. All the information contained herein is based upon information available to the public and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, the information contained in this note has not been verified by CFE and CFE undertakes no obligation to provide recipients of this note with any additional information or any update to or correction of the information contained in this note. This note is provided by CFE and may be forwarded unamended and in its entirety. This note may not be used in whole or in part to create any other work. All rights reserved.
FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE [2013]. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.
CFE is authorised and regulated by the FCA under Firm Reference Number 149380.   CFE – The Financial Services Register Information: http://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=61341
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Registered Address: 17 Crosswall, London, EC3N 2LB
Risk Warning
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and is not suitable for all customers. Furthermore, margined products use leverage to increase the level of exposure to the product, and as a result your losses may substantially exceed your initial deposit and require you to make additional deposits at short notice. Prior to trading leveraged CFDs, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience and risk appetite and should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Spread Bets are leveraged products placing your capital at risk. Losses can quickly exceed your initial deposit and thus require you to make additional deposits at short notice to maintain your positions. Leveraged products are not suitable for all customers. Please ensure you understand the risks involved before opening an account. You should ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if in doubt.
CFE provides an execution only service and does not offer investment advice.
These products are not intended for people under the age of 18 or for US residents.
The distribution of this note in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this note comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. By accepting this note you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions.

Day Ahead

Tuesday, 30 July 2013


Tuesday, July 30, 2013, Marketing Communication
Opening Call
  • The FTSE is seen opening up around 30 points higher this morning
Cantor Capital Markets Image
UK Corporate Announcements
  • Next states that it has seen little change in the consumer environment but tightens and increases its full year profit targets
  • Tullet Prebon announces an H1 adjusted pre-tax profit of £62.8m with revenues of £439m and states that it is prudent to expect the market conditions to stay challenging
  • Weir Group reports an H1 operating profit of £193m on revenues of £1.2bn and states that market conditions continue to be challenging
  • Elementis details an H1 pre-tax profit of $67.5m from $75m last year, on revenues of $388m and sees H2 in line with the market expectations
  • Barclays announces an adjusted H1 pre-tax profit of £3.59bn from £4.45bn and details that it does intend to raise £5.8bn in a rights offering and states it continues to remain cautious on the environment
  • Informa details an H1 operating profit of £162m largely in line, and maintains its full year targets and sees tentative signs of improvements in the tough environment
  • Domino’s Pizza reports an H1 adjusted pre-tax profit of £25.7m up 10% on sales up 14% to £326.5m and details its CFO is to retire next year
  • BP reports a Q2 adjusted pre-tax profit of $2.71bn, under the forecasts of $3.4bn, stating the earnings were affected by lower post tax income from Russia
  • ITV announces H1 revenues gained 2% to £1.309bn and an adjusted EPS of 5.3p
  • GKN reports an H1 pre-tax profit of £134m down from £279m and states that some end markets remained challenging but that it sees a stronger H2 ahead
UK News
  • The Independent details that metro bank, the first new bank to appear in the UK high street for more than 100 years, saw its account gain by 54% in H1, but that it was yet to reach breakeven
  • Vodafone launches its public takeover offer for Kabel Deutschland at €84.50/share in cash plus a €2.5/share dividend and that the acceptance period ends September 11
UK Analyst Changes
  • Aberdeen Cut To Equalweight Vs Overweight At Morgan Stanley
  • Man Group Cut To Neutral Vs Buy At Bofaml
UK Insider Buying
  • Synectics Plc, (SNX), 1 insider(s) bought 7300 shares, £4.1
  • Trap Oil Group Plc, (TRAP), 1 insider(s) bought 180000 shares, £0.11
UK Insider Selling
  • Britvic Plc, (BVIC),  insider(s) sold 130000 shares, £5.19
  • Bt Group Plc, (BT/A),  insider(s) sold 19822 shares, £3.35
FTSE 100 Movers
Major European Companies Reporting
  • Banco Comercial Portugues SA, S1, 0,  Danone SA, S1, 1.479,  Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion SA, S1, 0,  Galp Energia SGPS SA, S1, 0,  Hammerson PLC, S1, 0.117,  Intertek Group PLC, S1, 0.629,  JCDecaux SA, S1, 0.38,  Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC, S1, 1.184,  Ryanair Holdings PLC, Q1, 0.061,  Sika AG, S1, 54.65,  TNT Express NV, Q2, 0.077
European Market Summary
  • The FT writes that investors have already started to cool on any planned Publicis-Omnicom tie up, as it would put the likes of Coca-Cola and Pepsico as using the same ad group
  • The European unemployment rate stays near a record high, despite the recession ending in the region
  • Europe has one of the busiest corporate reporting days of the year due ahead, with the likes of Banco Santander, Fiat, Vinci, Man, Infineon and Deutsche Bank amongst those due to update the market
  • Irish press details how Pricewaterhouse Coppers is facing a €1bn lawsuit alleging negligent auditing of Quinn Insurance’s accounts over several years, brought by the liquidators of Quinn Insurance
  • America Movil has now ended its relationship agreement to keep its stake in KPN under 30%, giving Carlos Slim the opportunity to make a move for the Dutch telecom group
  • Italy sells €6.75bn in Bonds at 11:00
Global Market Footprint
Major US Stock Movers After Hours
  • PMC Sierra came off 7% as it announces a Q2 Adjusted EPS largely in line, but with revenues that missed the forecasts
S&P 500 Companies Reporting
  • Anadarko Petroleum Corp, Q2, 0.905,  Eastman Chemical Co, Q2, 1.634,  Express Scripts Holding Co, Q2, 1.103,  FMC Corp, Q2, 0.94,  Franklin Resources Inc, Q3, 0.848,  Hartford Financial Services Group Inc, Q2, 0.71,  Jacobs Engineering Group Inc, Q3, 0.841,  Loews Corp, Q2, 0.73,  Masco Corp, Q2, 0.198,  Northeast Utilities, Q2, 0.519,  Plum Creek Timber Co Inc, Q2, 0.234,  Roper Industries Inc, Q2, 1.297,  Simon Property Group Inc, Q2, 2.07,  XL Group PLC, Q2, 0.611
US Market News
  • JP Morgan is in the news as the US regulator alleges that it manipulated the power market
  • AIG confirms that it will from September stop servicing retail deposit accounts, return funds and close accounts as the Dodd Frank act puts limits on insurers with deposit taking units
  • The NY Times details how the lawyers for Fabrice Toure, the former Goldman Sachs trader accused of fraud, started their defence yesterday at 11:47, but rested by 11:48, calling no witnesses as they stay confident in their legal defence against the case brought by the government
  • Time Warner cable confirms it has pulled some CBS programming from its customers citing ‘outrageous demands’ for fees from CBS
Overnight Market News
  • The Telegraph writes that Prince Alwaleed has stated publicly that the region needs to wean their economies off energy exports immediately or spiral into decline, as the shale ‘revolution’ ends the global economy’s previous reliance on OPEC
  • The founder of AMMB Holdings, the Arab-Malaysian banking group, was shot dead in Kuala Lumpur yesterday in what police state may have been a business-related attack
Top FX
  • The yen weakened a touch in the past session as the safe haven buying seen in recent days eases as the local stock market gains
Economic Data Due
  • 09:30 UK June Mortgage Approvals, 59.2k exp. 58.2k previous
  • 15:00 US June Pending Home Sales m/m, -1.2% exp. 6.7% previous
Economic Events
  • No Major Events Detailed
UK Mortgage Approvals
CFD Sales/Traders
  • 0044 (0) 207 894 8883
  • cfdsales@cantor.com
Equity Spread Bet Sales
  • 0044 (0) 207 894 8800
  • sales@cantorcapital.com
Footnotes
  • FTSE 100 Call as at 6:45am
  • Analyst Changes, as at 6:30am
  • Times given are UK Local Time, (GMT or GMT +1 during BST)
  • Insider Deals data compiled from Director/PDMR Shareholding forms published in the past 24 hours (ex weekends).
  • Major European Companies defined as those companies in the STOXX Europe 600 Index
  • FTSE 100 Movers, Blue >0.25%, Green <0.25% > -0.25%, Red < -0.25%, Font size dependent on percentage size of move
  • This note is compiled using information / charts from financial data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters, as well as from the general financial / business media
Regulatory Disclaimer
This market commentary note (“note”) has been issued by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Cantor Capital and Cantor Index are trading names of CFE. This note is defined by the FCA as a marketing communication. This note has been prepared and distributed for information purposes only and represents the personal views and opinions of the sender. This note is not “investment research”, a “research recommendation” or a product of the Research Department. Please be aware that the CFE Research Department may issue a formal recommendation and target price on the stocks mentioned, which may differ from the opinion given here.  This note may contain information obtained by CFE from third parties; the source of information will usually be disclosed.  CFE makes no representation and gives no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this note. Any person placing reliance upon this note does so at their own risk. Investors should consider this note as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The investment discussed in this note may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. CFE, its officers, employees and affiliates shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs or claims howsoever arising from any inaccuracies or omissions in this note or any reliance on this note. The recipient is strongly recommended to see independent legal, tax and financial advice. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this note relates; either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors.
This note should not be considered to be a solicitation nor an offer of advice for the purposes of the sale or purchase of any security, investment or derivative.  The information contained in this note is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision and should not be considered a recommendation by CFE or any other person in relation to any of the companies, stock, commodities, currencies or other markets mentioned / referred to in this note. All the information contained herein is based upon information available to the public and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, the information contained in this note has not been verified by CFE and CFE undertakes no obligation to provide recipients of this note with any additional information or any update to or correction of the information contained in this note. This note is provided by CFE and may be forwarded unamended and in its entirety. This note may not be used in whole or in part to create any other work. All rights reserved.
FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE [2013]. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.
CFE is authorised and regulated by the FCA under Firm Reference Number 149380.   CFE – The Financial Services Register Information: http://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=61341
Registered in England No. 02505767
Registered Address: 17 Crosswall, London, EC3N 2LB
Risk Warning
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and is not suitable for all customers. Furthermore, margined products use leverage to increase the level of exposure to the product, and as a result your losses may substantially exceed your initial deposit and require you to make additional deposits at short notice. Prior to trading leveraged CFDs, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience and risk appetite and should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Spread Bets are leveraged products placing your capital at risk. Losses can quickly exceed your initial deposit and thus require you to make additional deposits at short notice to maintain your positions. Leveraged products are not suitable for all customers. Please ensure you understand the risks involved before opening an account. You should ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if in doubt.
CFE provides an execution only service and does not offer investment advice.
These products are not intended for people under the age of 18 or for US residents.
The distribution of this note in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this note comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. By accepting this note you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions.

Technical Analysis - FTSE 100

Monday, 29 July 2013


Cantor Capital Logo
Monday, July 29, 2013, Marketing Communication
FTSE 100, Daily, Semi-log
Graph Image
 In the last not we felt that the FTSE looked still looked to be positive for the medium to longer term but did look vulnerable to some short term profit taking.
On the graph above we can see how the FTSE has run out of buying interest in recent days, this lack of momentum is mirrored on the stochastics indicator which has turned in recent days whilst being in overbought areas.
Usually the UK focus is on the S&P 500 chart, however we would suggest that the Nikkei could prove instructive in the near term, more below in the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 Daily charts.
FTSE 100, Weekly, Semi-log
Graph Image
Last updated, June 2013
The graph above throws up a possible medium term Elliott Wave count on the FTSE 100. We can see how from the 2009 lows there was a fairly clear impulse move higher, Red 1-5, followed by a simple expanded flat abc correction.
From these 2011 lows the FTSE has posted the start of a new bullish impulse wave higher, with the current price action in Wave 4. Elliott Wave rules dictate that if this count is correct on any future weakness the FTSE cannot move into the range of Wave 1. As a result we would expect significant support from the Wave 1 highs, Gold line, which coincides with the psychologically important level at 6,000.
This also suggests that Wave 5 ahead is set to post moves above the highs posted in May 2013. So using this count over the medium to longer term there are bullish arguments for a move up through and beyond the all time highs in the months ahead, and that this strength could start to fail early in 2014. 6,000 can be used as a level to negate this bullish count. On the graph above we have also highlighted an RSI Failure Swing, Black lines, where the recent fresh highs, have not been matched by higher highs in RSI. This does suggest that the strength of buying earlier in the year was not as robust as we would like. This does flag up some more medium term risks that could see the FTSE drop down to its medium term trend later in Q3, red diagonal line.
So in June the FTSE dropped down towards some major support areas, and bullish trend lines, which attracted buying interest from the longer term players. Moves under the 6,000 area would start to create more serious downside concerns, while with the recent leg higher, off this pivotal support, has to date confirmed the optimistic count.
FTSE 100, Monthly, Semi-log
Graph Image
Text last updated, July, 2013
The monthly timescale naturally takes the long term view so the commentary in this section will only be updated as and when market events dictate. So regular readers of this report will only need to read the monthly and weekly sections on a relatively infrequent basis. However we include all the information to give new readers the full picture.
The monthly graph for the FTSE 100 quite clearly shows how the index posted an extremely powerful move into the end of the last century, first red line on the price graph. From the all time highs in the index at 6950 the FTSE slumped 50% to the 2003 lows. In hindsight we can see this move as an understandable and even justifiable re-examination of the strong gains posted in the previous 20-30 years. From 2009 the FTSE has posted a strong recovery and currently is posting moves up to its all time highs, moves already posted by the S&P 500, Dow Jones and DAX. The FTSE broke the upper bearish trend, black line, and continues to look set to follow the S&P 500 by posting a move up to its all time highs around 6950.
Moves under the longer term trend line, far right red diagonal line, could trigger the start of a more significant retracement, as seen with the breaks lower in 2001 and 2008. But while the resistance from the 2011 highs have been cleared, more optimistic long-term targets have been opened up, with moves up to the all time highs now seen as most likely, while the strong longer term trend holds.
S&P 500 Graph, Monthly, Semi-log
Graph Image
The monthly graph below details how the S&P 500 has posted record all time highs on the recent moves, setting a bullish backdrop for the European markets.
S&P 500, Daily, Semi-log
The S&P 500 has managed to recover the May sell-off and post fresh highs for the year, considerably stronger than the FTSE 100. The Stochastic have also turned in recent days but due to the higher highs in price the outlook remains optimistic. However the Nikkei below is attempting to negate this view.
Nikkei 225, Daily, Semi-log
The Nikkei is the most bearish of the markets described in this note. We can see how the index has moved quite sharply lower in recent days and now is close to the significant near term support we have been looking at for a few weeks, black line on chart. The stochastic also have turned much more negative.
Stochastics, RSI, MACD and virtually all indicators are just that, indicators, and price remains the most import data series to monitor, as a result the near term outlook can stay positive on the Nikkei, for now. However if the price was to fall under the 13570 area, the price would confirm the negative stochastics and the short term outlook on the Japanese index would worsen.
In the current light trading environment we would suspect this selling could also create some nervousness in the FTSE 100. As a result we can see traders using the 13570 region on the Nikkei 225 as a barometer of sentiment for the days ahead. Where the anticipated profit taking seen in major markets in recent days could accelerate if the Nikkei breaches this support. Without such a breach however the more bullish S&P 500 should be able to keep the recent selling from gathering pace. leaving a take profit cautious stance seen taken by traders as the light summer trading continues.
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  • 0044 (0) 207 894 8883
  • cfdsales@cantor.com
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Regulatory Disclaimer
This market commentary note (“note”) has been issued by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Cantor Index is a trading name of CFE. This note is defined by the FCA as a marketing communication. This note has been prepared and distributed for information purposes only and represents the personal views and opinions of the sender. This note is not “investment research”, a “research recommendation” or a product of the Research Department. Please be aware that the CFE Research Department may issue a formal recommendation and target price on the stocks mentioned, which may differ from the opinion given here.  This note may contain information obtained by CFE from third parties; the source of information will usually be disclosed.  CFE makes no representation and gives no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this note. Any person placing reliance upon this note does so at their own risk. Investors should consider this note as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The investment discussed in this note may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. CFE, its officers, employees and affiliates shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs or claims howsoever arising from any inaccuracies or omissions in this note or any reliance on this note. The recipient is strongly recommended to see independent legal, tax and financial advice. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this note relates; either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors.
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Risk Warning
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and is not suitable for all customers. Furthermore, margined products use leverage to increase the level of exposure to the product, and as a result your losses may substantially exceed your initial deposit and require you to make additional deposits at short notice. Prior to trading leveraged CFDs, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience and risk appetite and should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Spread Bets are leveraged products placing your capital at risk. Losses can quickly exceed your initial deposit and thus require you to make additional deposits at short notice to maintain your positions. Leveraged products are not suitable for all customers. Please ensure you understand the risks involved before opening an account. You should ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if in doubt.
CFE provides an execution only service and does not offer investment advice.
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Risk WarningFull Risk Warning

Spread Bets are leveraged products placing your capital at risk. Losses can quickly exceed your initial deposit and thus require you to make additional deposits at short notice to maintain your positions. Leveraged products are not suitable for all customers. Please ensure you understand the risks involved before opening an account. Cantor Index provides an execution only service and does not offer investment advice. You should ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if necessary. These products are not intended for people under the age of 18 or for US residents.