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TODAY’S FAYRE

Wednesday, 12 December 2012


TODAY’S FAYRE – Wednesday, 12th December 2012
 
“Fear death? – to feel the fog in my throat,
The mist in my face,
When the snows begin, and the blasts denote
I am nearing the place,
The power of the night, the press of the storm,
The post of the foe;
Where he stands, the Arch Fear in a visible form;
Yet the strong man must go:
For the journey is done and the summit attained,
And the barriers fall,
Though a battle's to fight ere the guerdon be gained,
The reward of it all.
I was ever a fighter, so---one fight more,
The best and the last!
I would hate that Death bandaged my eyes, and forbore,
And made me creep past.
No! let me taste the whole of it, fare like my peers,
The heroes of old,
Bear the brunt, in a minute pay glad life's arrears
Of pain, darkness and cold.
For sudden the worst turns the best to the brave.
The black minute's at end,
And the elements' rage, the fiend voices that rave,
Shall dwindle, shall blend,
Shall change, shall become first a peace out of pain.
Then a light, then thy breast,
O thou soul of my soul! I shall clasp thee again,
And with God be the rest!”

 
Robert Browning – poet – 1812-1889

Sir Terry Leahy, the 56 year old former CEO of Tesco, considered by many to be the doyen of retail in the UK during his 14 year tenure, was lunching at The Goring Hotel yesterday.  He looked sprightly fit, sharp and as enthusiastic as ever.  Mind you the lunch was extremely frugal and abstemious!  Now chairing the on-line retail group The Hut Group, one wonders if that challenge is enough on its own to titillate his ambitions.

I was talking to two well-connected Americans yesterday, as to who might become Secretary of State replacing the admirable Hillary Rodham-Clinton.  All they could come up with were John Kerry and Susan Rice, the current United States Ambassador to the United Nations! Well she certainly eats nails for breakfast and spits rust out, hardly the ingredients for diplomacy! Surely there must be other candidates?

The debate on Europe - ‘IN OR OUT!” - is gathering momentum.  Boris Johnson and Dr Liam Fox have now entered the debate from the wings! Why not come and participate in the CANTOR INDEX sponsored debate at the Bloomberg Auditorium on Wednesday 9th January 2013? Have your say and pit your wits against NIGEL FARAGE, PETER OBORNE, DAVID BLUNKETT and SIR MENZIES CAMPBELL! - "Should the UK leave the EU

Markets pottered quietly about their business yesterday, most of them making a little though unspectacular progress as we head towards Yuletide in very quiet trading conditions.  The ZEW confidence index helped the cause and nothing adverse came out of the first day of the FOMC meeting.  More QE, perhaps mortgage backed bonds rather than Treasuries will probably be the recommended facilities.  The FTSE 100 closed at 5924 – up 3 points – just 21 points short of the close in 2011. That’s a pretty remarkable achievement against a background of EU sovereign debt turmoil, falling growth across the world, China, India and Brazil very much included and with the distinct prospect that the UK and the EU could fall in to recession next year.  Of course 70% of the FTSE 100’s earnings are dollar related and have little bearing on UK’s parochial economic activity.

Talking of performing sectors; Look no further than the banking sector for gains this year! – RBS 37%, HSBC 28%, Lloyds Banking Group 72%, Barclays 38% and Standard Chartered Bank just the 2.5%. Against a background of LIBOR manipulation, Miss-selling of PPI and IRSs and money laundering rallies of this magnitude is incredible – even though the start was from a very low base.  It just goes to show how robust the banks are in the current climate and so long as the QE rug is not pulled from under them and interest rates remain low, the outlook for some, according to our clients looks rosy – particularly strong ‘heads-ups’ for HSBC and Barclays.  Of course draconian capital requirements could put the kibosh on progress if investors believe they are being discriminated against. Governor Elect Mark Carney has a refreshing outlook towards inflation in the current financial climate – ‘leave it in the in-tray and concentrate on expansive monetary policies.’

Could we get of HSBC’s back please? These transgressions took place between 2001 and 2008.  There is a new management broom in place – Lord Green and Michael Geogeghan are pursuing other interests and Douglas Flint and Stuart Gulliver are as tough as teak and will take no prisoners, when the guidelines are breached!  Steps have been implemented and introduced to monitor proper regulatory controls. Abject apologies have been made and the US JOJ has metaphorically rubbed HSBC’s nose in the poop; so its time to move on, the requisite fines having been paid.  HSBC is a very well balanced operation with a strong global business platform. It is thought that most of the financial skeletons are now out of the closet! So onwards and upwards!  I am amazed to keep hearing or reading in the press the pugilistic Terry Smith of Tullett Prebon, who persists in ‘slagging’ his customers off.  Either he’s stupid and I know he isn’t; or he is arrogance personified!

As for the Northern Rock debacle, where £270 million could be shared with 152k customers who took out loans and mortgages with incorrect and therefore invalid documentation; now that is a disgrace and heads should role to make sure that there is no repetition of what should be a very simple though tiresome piece of administration.

The EU meets again today to talk about a banking Union.  Even though Chancellor Merkel believes that nothing will transpire at this session, George Osborne needs to make it crystal clear that the UK banking sector will yield absolutely nothing to the EU.  London has NOTHING to benefit from this union. London has regrouped and is not far short from selecting another gear on its road back as the financially pre-eminent centre.

News in brief

Virgin Airlines sells 49% to Delta Airlines for £224 million.
Diageo draws stumps on its quest to buy the tequila titan Jose Cuervo for £2 billion.
Jaguar Rover will be opening a plant in Saudi Arabia.
Indian factory orders rose 8.2% last month.

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