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TODAY’S FAYRE

Tuesday, 8 January 2013


TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday, 8th January 2013


“Woman much missed, how you call to me, call to me,
Saying that now you are not as you were
When you had changed from the one who was all to
me,
But as at first, when our day was fair.

Can it be you that I hear? Let me view you, then,
Standing as when I drew near to the town
Where you would wait for me: yes, as I knew you
then,
Even to the original air-blue gown!

Or is it only the breeze, in its listlessness
Travelling across the wet mead1 to me here,
You being ever dissolved to wan wistlessness,
Heard no more again far or near?”

Woman much missed, how you call to me, call to me,
Saying that now you are not as you were
When you had changed from the one who was all to me,
But as at first, when our day was fair.

Can it be you that I hear? Let me view you, then,
Standing as when I drew near to the town
Where you would wait for me: yes, as I knew you then,
Even to the original air-blue gown!

Or is it only the breeze, in its listlessness
Travelling across the wet mead to me here,
You being ever dissolved to wan wistlessness,
Heard no more again far or near?

      Thus I; faltering forward,
      Leaves around me falling,
Wind oozing thin through the thorn from norward,
      And the woman calling.
Woman much missed, how you call to me, call to me,
Saying that now you are not as you were
When you had changed from the one who was all to me,
But as at first, when our day was fair.

Can it be you that I hear? Let me view you, then,
Standing as when I drew near to the town
Where you would wait for me: yes, as I knew you then,
Even to the original air-blue gown!

Or is it only the breeze, in its listlessness
Travelling across the wet mead to me here,
You being ever dissolved to wan wistlessness,
Heard no more again far or near?

      Thus I; faltering forward,
      Leaves around me falling,
Wind oozing thin through the thorn from norward,
      And the woman calling.

Thomas Hardy – poet & author – 1840-1928


Whilst we wait to see if John Kerry is proposed and confirmed as the new Secretary of State to replace Hillary Rodham-Clinton, President Obama has not wasted any time by staying in the controversial limelight in naming Ex-Senator Chuck Hagel to succeed Leon Panatta as Defence Secretary.  Hagel is a 66 year old Republican who is often accused by his co-GOP members for being tough on Israel and weak on Iran.  It is unlikely that the GOP will challenge Hagel’s nomination, but he will find his critics including John McCain waiting in the wings to challenge his authority.  John Brennan’s likely appointment as head of the CIA will also have his adversaries.  Mr Brennan has supposedly been a fierce advocate of interrogation techniques. Again he is not expected to be officially opposed.


The Cameron/Clegg Circus upgraded its plans for the future with pithy panache – still very little in the way of ‘meat-on-the-bone!’  They both get dix points for presentational skills, but the electorate is still none the wiser as to what the coalition stands for apart from rather obvious platitudes, which most members of the human race would have empathy with. With just 30 months to go until the general election both leaders will need to start focusing on their respective party’s policies.


It is not very surprising that Sir Mervyn King attempted to grab the headlines with news of the first ever global agreement on minimum liquidity requirements for banks courtesy of the Basel 111 agreement.  The banks themselves were given plenty of concessions only having to meet 60% of the criteria by 2015 – the rest to follow in 2019. This seemed a very sensible accord, hopefully providing some stimulus for the economic recovery whilst mildly watering down the inevitable draconian cost to the banking sector, which will of course get passed on to the consumer! Make no mistake the cost will be considerable!  Also the Central banks will eventually be taken out of the firing line as the market’s main supplier of liquidity, leaving them there as the lender of last resort – its regular function!


Yesterday the FTSE 100 eased by 25 points to 6064.  It might well have been more but for the news on bank liquidity.  Much of it was already in the market, but Barclays, the only recognised UK bank with exposure to investment banking saw its share price rise like the proverbial grilse – up 10% to 287p and up 98% since July last year 148p! Lloyds added 1.2%.  Forget HSBC in these calculations as its liquidity requirements are not acute for it.  They get bundles of deposits from all over the world.  National Grid and Centrica both lost 2% yesterday.  Centrica’s drop coincided with the CEO Sam Laidlaw’s spat with BG’s CEO Philip Bentley, which resulted in the latter leaving.  Mr Laidlaw was very unhappy with the manner in which BG has raised prices for the consumer in the last 5 years – up 84% on average gas and electricity bill from £735 to £1353.



The Street of Dreams had a neutral session last night with the DOW and S&P 500 easing by 0.3% and the NASDAQ by 0.1%. Yum Brands! Dropped by 5% after hours as it announced that sales in China are down by 6% in Q4 from the previous time (-4%). The US banks have finally settled their litigation on mortgages with Fannie Mae and clients to the tune of $20 billion for misrepresentation and cutting corners on foreclosures.  Bank of America’s share is $11 billion.  Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup were also involved. The news had already been priced in; in fact BOA share price rose a tad!  Today the following companies post numbers - Alcoa Inc, Monsanto Co, Apollo Group Inc.  




The most interesting piece of corporate news this morning was the appointment of Mark Cutifani of Goldfields Ashanti as CEO of Anglo-American replacing Cynthia Carroll.  On the face of it this strikes me as a first class appointment.  Though an Australian by birth, he has spent many years in Africa and is well acquainted with South African politicians and is aware of the sensitive nature of the poor labour relations.  He also passes muster with Public Investment Corporation, which is Anglo’s largest shareholder. Anglo American controls 40% of the world’s production of platinum as well as being prominent in gold and iron ore.



Anglo-American has been accused of being behind the curve in comparison to BHP and Rio Tinto. Perhaps is not unreasonable to suggest that it was a bit of a mongrel in terms of focus.  However having IPO’d Mondi and sold off its share of Tarmac to Arcelor Mittal and having acquired the balance of De Beers diamonds last year for $5.1 billion perhaps the company will be in a position to concentrate on mining and expand its base further than South Africa and Brazil. Though Aaron Regent of Barrick Gold, Chris Griffiths, head of platinum at AAL and Chip Goodyear were all touted for this prestigious position, Cutifani seems to be the inspired selection.


NEWS IN BRIEF –
VODAFONE – Rumours abound that Verizon is considering a deal to buy out its stake.  The ADR market in New York had its chain rattled last night – PURE RUMOUR
Samsung announces Q4 earnings ahead of the expectations and up to a fresh record as sales of its smart phones continued to gain strongly, despite the launch of the iPhone 5.  Despite the quality of the earnings, profit takers strode in to the ring.
Debenhams states that it has posted its highest ever December sales, with 18 week Like-for-like sales up 2.9% ahead of the forecasts, and that online sales are ahead of the expectations
Balfour Beatty details that it is budgeting for tough market conditions and that trading has been in line. Ian Tyler will be handing over as CEO to Andrew McNaughton
Domino’s Pizza announces 53 week system sales gained 12.7% and that its full year profit is seen coming in line, and details it opened 69 stores in the full year
Persimmon announces that its CEO is to retire as 2012 revenues gained 12% to £1.72bn, and that average home prices gained 6% in 2012
Interserve is confident of its ability to make progress in 2013
Rexam announces a return of cash to shareholders, around £395m in total, 45p/share


Economic data -
UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like y/y, 0.4% previous
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence, -26.6 exp. -26.6 previous



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