TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday, 22nd January 2013
“I know that I shall meet my fate
Somewhere among the clouds above;
Those that I fight I do not hate,
Those that I guard I do not love;
My country is Kiltartan Cross,
My countrymen Kiltartan's poor,
No likely end could bring them loss
Or leave them happier than before.
Nor law, nor duty bade me fight,
Nor public men, nor cheering crowds,
A lonely impulse of delight
Drove to this tumult in the clouds;
I balanced all, brought all to mind,
The years to come seemed waste of breath,
A waste of breath the years behind
In balance with this life, this death.”
WB Yeats – poet – 1865-1939
So yesterday was Martin Luther King Day and the second inauguration of President Obama. The President danced with the lovely Michelle decked out in a beautiful red ball gown, as if the two did not have a care in the world. This was a great public relations exercise, which his Democrat supporters would have lapped up. However successful President Obama will be with his gun legislation, education, climate change and medical policies, he needs to build a far better relationship with Congress to make progress with fiscal and monetary policies. His approach towards Congress is a touch arrogant and the GOP is not going to lie down on these issues and have its tummy tickled!
What distresses me and most people who are concerned about the validity of the EU dream is that the whole process is not remotely democratic and none of the political parties within the EU is prepared to recognise that fact! Even David Cameron, despite the threat of a backbench rebellion seems to be routinely trying to prevent any election on this important issue, as have EU leaders over Greece's, Spain's and Italy's respective precarious financial positions. When people are denied a vote, democracy flies out of the window and dictatorship prevails. Clever 'political-fudged-speak' just muddies the waters and confuses the debate!
Tomorrow, Mr Cameron is likely to argue that the UK wants to remain in the EU, but on different terms and that a referendum could be held after the next election to give the public their say on the outcome of any future negotiations. The UK pays shed-loads of tax in to the EU and it is very questionable what bang it gets for its buck! Not that my opinion is worth a fig! However Mr Cameron knows that his party is no more than a 5/1 shot to win the next general election outright – so leaving a referendum until after 2015 is a total abrogation of his responsibility. Mr Cameron should have the courage of his own convictions and do what is right for the people and the country.
He knows Labour will vote to stay in; so if Mr Miliband gets a mandate he has a better chance of persuading the British people to back him. As we stand now about 58% of the population are sceptical. Big business is using their huge shoulders to muscle in with its propaganda that leaving the EU will create massive unemployment – not proven! Nor is the perception that trade tariffs will kill our competitive instincts. FTSE 100 company CEOS and their peers in Europe are overly influenced by politicians and wedded to regulators and bureaucracy! I am very fearful for SMES, which will be responsible for our growth going forward, that they do not have any standard bearers to fight their corner! Also, apart from the PM no one has properly championed the cause of the rest of the world as trading partners. There is all to play for rather than rely on doing 45% of our trade with the EU
If this government or the country thinks that the EU will pander to our request to change the rules to suit the UK, I suspect they must have been resident on the Planet Zog! It’s not going to happen. We either accept their terms or I suspect that it is ‘Goodnight, Vienna!’ What I find fascinating is that the German people are probably anti-the-EU and so is France. Sadly they are both so deeply ensconced they cannot see the wood from the trees. Germany has very successfully kept the lid on its wages in recent years – circa 2%, whereas the rest of the EU has seen its labour costs rattle up by about 25%. How long will Germany tolerate subbing Mediterranean countries?
The PR brigade from the EY – Messrs Barroso, Van Rompuy, Rehn, J-C Juncker and the splendid Draghi, tell us that the financial crisis has been avoided and that the Euro has been saved. They would say that to calm frayed nerves! However is that really the case? Does one just wipe out 50% youth unemployment on the Mediterranean and 25% in Spain & Greece overall with little chance of growth? Who is dealing with the painful corruption of Greek civil servants and tax collectors? Why are assets not being sold to alleviate debt? I just hope and pray that the PM orchestrates a proper debate on all these imponderables and that our destiny is clarified by the General Election! I can dream! If David Cameron can become the genie from Aladdin’s lamp and manipulate the other 27 members of the EU, well done him! If that is the case I suspect I shall have to bring Judy Garland in from stage left – “Somewhere over the rainbow….!’
Exciting news that Crest Nicholson is to seek a public quotation! Investors remain very cynical. There’s nothing wrong with CN’s aspirations. Good luck to them! The track record of recent sizeable IPOS has been mixed. Why? Investors often fear that the fair has left town by the time of the IPO and they have been left to pick up the garbage! This may be a million miles from the truth. The way to illustrate it is to price the IPO generously with a built in profit, thus guaranteeing a decent share register for the future!
The market and the consumer are delighted to see that Hilco will be having a really good look at attempting to salvage HMV. Hilco knows about these issues and it looks as though Universal, Sony and Warner Bros will attempt to be accommodative.
UK Corporate Announcements
Fresnillo details that 2012 silver output has met its guidance, and gold output was ahead. SABMiller announces total volumes gained 6% up 17% on a reported basis and states the final quarter was in line with the expectations. Marston’s announces brewing profits are in line with the forecasts and operating margins are slightly ahead.
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The business press highlights how a group of Barclays employers have lost their court request to keep their names private, as part of the Libor investigations. Ocado has confirmed today that Stuart Rose is to succeed Lord Michael Grade who is to step down as chairman this year. Sir Mervyn King will be speaking in Northern Ireland later today. Some suggest that the latest cold snap could drag the UK down into a triple dip recession
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