Day Ahead

Tuesday, April 30, 2013, Marketing Communication FTSE 100 Opening Call The FTSE is seen gaining around 20 points on the open today UK Corporate Announcements Whitbread reports a full year revenues of £2.03bn up 14%  and a pre-tax profit of £301m up 13% Imperial Tobacco announces H1 total adjusted operating profit of £1,42bn largely in line and despite announcing H1 sales fell 4.2% worse than the 2.4% fall seen Lloyds reports Q1 pre-tax profit of £1.48bn well ahead of the forecasts of £1.03bn seen and states that it remains on track to meet its full year targets Asos announces an H1 pre-tax profit of £25.7m from £21.6m and states that momentum is strong and that it has a positive outlook for 2012 Wolfson Electronics reports a Q1 gross profit of $19.3m on revenues of $48.1m and sees revenues in Q2 of $44-54m BP reports Q1 replacement costs profit of $16.6bn and an adjusted net income of $4.2bn, against forecasts of $3.2bn and details it has now paid out $10.6bn towards the Gulf of Mexico oil spill Carphone Warehouse confirms its full year forecasts as it announces that it has conditionally agreed to buy Best Buy’s stake in CPW for £471m UK Market News The government is reportedly within days of seeking banks for a Royal Mail IPO The Telegraph suggests that Whitbread is planning to build new hotels with smaller rooms after testing smaller rooms in its City hotels Unilever announces a €4.1bn bid to increase its stake in Hindustan Unilever up to 75% The RBS may yet received enforcement action from the SEC over Mortgage Bonds from 2007 Barclays has won the right to attempt to dismiss the first case to court that it rigged Libor The UK based music finding app Shazam has hired an new American CEO as it looks to boost its profile ahead of its planned IPO In one of its first public moves the FCA has charged Alex Hope with fraud, he had previously hit the headlines as he reportedly made the most expensive round of drinks, at £200,000 KKR is reportedly looking at Rio Tinto’s 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold mine in Australia, valued at around $800m The UK sells £500m at Bonds at 10:30 UK Analyst Changes Anglo American Raised To Neutral Vs Reduce At Nomura Enrc Raised To Neutral Vs Reduce At Nomura Reed Elsevier Cut To Neutral Vs Buy At Citi Sainsbury Cut To Neutral Vs Buy At Citi Ubm Raised To Buy Vs Neutral At Ubs UK Insider Buying Afc Energy Plc, (AFC), 1 insider(s) bought 9507517 shares, £0.26 Astrazeneca Plc, (AZN), 1 insider(s) bought 238 shares, £33.2 British Sky Broadcasti, (BSY), 8 insider(s) bought 1758 shares, £8.47 Brown (N) Group Plc, (BWNG), 1 insider(s) bought 658 shares, £4.5 Cls Holdings Plc, (CLI), 1 insider(s) bought 1536 shares, £9.2 Croma Security Solutio, (CSSG), 2 insider(s) bought 76000 shares, £0.19 Guinness Peat Group P, (GPG), 1 insider(s) bought 370000 shares, £0.3 Hummingbird Resources, (HUM), 1 insider(s) bought 134400 shares, £0.37 Norcon Plc, (NCON), 1 insider(s) bought 58521 shares, £0.15 Terra Capital Plc, (TCA), 1 insider(s) bought 20000 shares, £0.46 Vernalis Plc, (VER), 1 insider(s) bought 107000 shares, £0.23 UK Insider Selling Astrazeneca Plc, (AZN),  insider(s) sold 63251 shares, £33.18 Bellway Plc, (BWY), 1 insider(s) sold 7534 shares, £13.77 Bodycote Plc, (BOY), 1 insider(s) sold 27637 shares, £5.01 Diageo Plc, (DGE), 1 insider(s) sold 95000 shares, £19.42 Reed Elsevier Plc, (REL), 2 insider(s) sold 650015 shares, £7.53 Wpp Plc, (WPP),  insider(s) sold 366300 shares, £10.65 FTSE 100 Movers Major European Companies Reporting Abertis Infraestructuras SA, Q1, 0.195,  Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, Q1, 1.01,  Banco Popular Espanol SA, Q1, 0.032,  Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles SA, Q1, 0.395,  BP PLC, Q1, 0.168,  Clariant AG, Q1, 0.235,  Coloplast A/S, Q2, 3.114,  Deutsche Bank AG, Q1, 1.3,  DSV A/S, Q1, 2.012,  Fiat Industrial SpA, Q1, 0.175,  Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co KGaA, Q1, 0.638,  Fresenius SE & Co KGaA, Q1, 1.323,  Geberit AG, Q1, 0,  Imperial Tobacco Group PLC, S1, 0.901,  Lloyds Banking Group PLC, Q1, 0.012,  Marine Harvest ASA, Q1, 0.085,  Nokian Renkaat OYJ, Q1, 0.506,  Schibsted ASA, Q1, 1.511,  Tryg A/S, Q1, 6.829,  UBS AG, Q1, 0.266,  Whitbread PLC, R, 1.487 European Market Summary Deutsche bank is looking to raise as much as €4bn, just a few months after its chief stated publicly that a share sale was not in shareholders’ best interests Banco Santander’s chief finally resigned yesterday, ahead of the Spanish financial regulator’s final decision on whether he should be banned from the banking industry Norway’s Petroleum Safety Authority has criticised BP for a leak in one of its North Sea oilfields which its states could have led to a ‘major accident’ and ‘substantial material damage’ Norway sells Nok4bn in bonds at 12:00 Global Intraday Footprint Major US Stock Movers After Hours MBIA came off 3% as it loses its bid for a pre-trial summary judgement ruling on Countrywide failing to buy back its loans Riverbed Technology slipped 5% as it announced Q1 revenues of $253m under the forecasts citing slower government sales S&P 500 Companies Reporting Aetna Inc, Q1, 1.377,  AGL Resources Inc, Q1, 1.34,  Archer-Daniels-Midland Co, Q1, 0.523,  AvalonBay Communities Inc, Q1, -0.625,  Avon Products Inc, Q1, 0.133,  Boston Properties Inc, Q1, 1.211,  Cummins Inc, Q1, 1.856,  Ecolab Inc, Q1, 0.586,  Edison International, Q1, 0.662,  Ensco PLC, Q1, 1.297,  Equity Residential, Q1, 0.647,  Fidelity National Information Services Inc, Q1, 0.608,  Fiserv Inc, Q1, 1.339,  FMC Corp, Q1, 1.069,  Franklin Resources Inc, Q2, 2.489,  Genworth Financial Inc, Q1, 0.277,  Harris Corp, Q3, 1.12,  HCP Inc, Q1, 0.723,  Hudson City Bancorp Inc, Q1, 0.108,  Invesco Ltd, Q1, 0.471,  Jacobs Engineering Group Inc, Q2, 0.825,  Legg Mason Inc, Q4, 0.262,  Life Technologies Corp, Q1, 1.053,  Marathon Petroleum Corp, Q1, 2.132,  McGraw-Hill Cos Inc/The, Q1, 0.74,  MeadWestvaco Corp, Q1, 0.235,  NextEra Energy Inc, Q1, 1.018,  NiSource Inc, Q1, 0.714,  NYSE Euronext, Q1, 0.558,  ONEOK Inc, Q1, 0.585,  Pfizer Inc, Q1, 0.551,  Pitney Bowes Inc, Q1, 0.438,  Public Service Enterprise Group Inc, Q1, 0.737,  QEP Resources Inc, Q1, 0.302,  Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc, Q1, 0.528,  TECO Energy Inc, Q1, 0.17,  Tenet Healthcare Corp, Q1, 0.31,  United States Steel Corp, Q1, -0.2,  Valero Energy Corp, Q1, 0.986,  Western Union Co/The, Q1, 0.324,  Wisconsin Energy Corp, Q1, 0.709,  Xylem Inc/NY, Q1, 0.268 US Market News Time Warner Cable names Arthur Minson as its new CFO Apple has won the latest legal challenge by Samsung, as Samsung loses its bid to pause the new damages trial Bats details that its BZX Exchange has experienced a hardware failure, while CBOE states that it tested its systems over the weekend and that the previous error in its systems was due to internal work to reconfigure systems for after hours trading Herbalife has lifted its full year EPS forecasts and declines to comment on market talk of a possible LBO The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high yesterday Overnight Market News Asian markets have moved up to a five year high, according to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index Alibaba has taken an 18% stake in Sina Corp Weibo, which operates China’s largest ‘Twitter’ like service Bloomberg highlights how the stunning growth by Fast Retailing has buoyed the Nikkei 225 and has accounted for a sixth of the Nikkei’s 49% increase over the past 24 months, Fast retailing Is 10% of the index, and its share prices has gained by more than 300% over the period, the likes of Mitsubishi have stated that the index no longer properly reflects the Japanese equity market Top FX News The dollar has moved to a week low against the euro ahead of the FOMC two day meeting on expectations that QE will be maintained for the foreseeable future Top Commodity US Lumber mills are sawing lumber at the fastest rate for some 6 years, as the US housing market continues to improve, while also buoyed by strong demand from China Australia’s Perth Mint has reportedly worked through the weekend to meet the recent pick up gold coin demand following the recent selloff Economic Data Due 00:30 Japan March Jobless Rate, 4.2% exp. 4.3% previous 10:00 Eurozone April CPI Estimate, 1.6% exp. 1.7% previous 15:00 US April Consumer Confidence, 59.8 exp. 59.7 previous Economic Events None Detailed US Consumer Confidence CFD Sales/Traders 0044 (0) 207 894 8883 cfdsales@cantor.com Equity Spread Bet Sales 0044 (0) 207 894 8800 sales@cantorcapital.com Footnotes FTSE 100 Call as at 6:45am Analyst Changes, as at 6:30am Times given are UK Local Time, (GMT or GMT +1 during BST) Insider Deals data compiled from Director/PDMR Shareholding forms published in the past 24 hours (ex weekends). Major European Companies defined as those companies in the STOXX Europe 600 Index FTSE 100 Movers, Blue >0.25%, Green <0.25% > -0.25%, Red < -0.25%, Font size dependent on percentage size of move This note is compiled using information / charts from financial data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters, as well as from the general financial / business media Regulatory Disclaimer This market commentary note (“note”) has been issued by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Cantor Index is a trading name of CFE. This note is defined by the FCA as a marketing communication. This note has been prepared and distributed for information purposes only and represents the personal views and opinions of the sender. This note is not “investment research”, a “research recommendation” or a product of the Research Department. Please be aware that the CFE Research Department may issue a formal recommendation and target price on the stocks mentioned, which may differ from the opinion given here.  This note may contain information obtained by CFE from third parties; the source of information will usually be disclosed.  CFE makes no representation and gives no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this note. Any person placing reliance upon this note does so at their own risk. Investors should consider this note as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The investment discussed in this note may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. CFE, its officers, employees and affiliates shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs or claims howsoever arising from any inaccuracies or omissions in this note or any reliance on this note. The recipient is strongly recommended to see independent legal, tax and financial advice. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this note relates; either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. This note should not be considered to be a solicitation nor an offer of advice for the purposes of the sale or purchase of any security, investment or derivative.  The information contained in this note is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision and should not be considered a recommendation by CFE or any other person in relation to any of the companies, stock, commodities, currencies or other markets mentioned / referred to in this note. All the information contained herein is based upon information available to the public and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. 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FTSE Technical Analysis

Monday, April 29, 2013, Marketing Communication FTSE 100, Daily We have highlighted in recent weeks how the FTSE has slipped back to some important medium term support areas, 6200 area on graph. While this support holds the outlook for Q2 stays positive. Last week we felt that in the near term this level would hold and could tempt in the buyers, so the gains posted in the past week are largely as expected. On the chart above we have noted a possible five wave impulse move higher from November 2012 to the recent highs (1-5 in red). From this move we can see the abc correction to the recent lows. Corrections often find support from the Wave 4 of the previous impulse. The buying from 6,200 last week has so far confirmed this potential count. The question is if this near term buying has done enough for now? Last week we flagged up how the possible Morning Star candlestick pattern which may have helped describe the buying interest. This week we do have the more bearish Hanging Man formation, yesterday’s price action. Also the price action has moved up to the tentative bearish trend line calculated from the March highs, diagonal red line, and as a result it does not look terribly convincing that it will be able to maintain its position above the 20 period moving average on this attempt, grey line. However the RSI has just posted a higher high and has breached its bearish trend, black line, so it does suggest that the buyers are still interested. In summary then while the 6,200 area holds the outlook for the remainder of H1 remains positive. In the very near term the price gains may have just done enough for now, but short sellers should not attempt to profit on any selling ahead as the risk reward is not favourable. Only a break of the 6,200 area would negate this positive outlook and we would expect to see buyers return on any near term weakness that was to bring the FTSE back down to the 6250 area. FTSE 100, Weekly Last updated, March 4, 2013 The graph above throws up a possible Elliott Wave count on the FTSE 100. We can see how from the 2009 lows there was a fairly clear impulse move higher, Red 1-5, followed by a simple abc correction. Another impulse move higher brought us up to the highs of 2011. From these highs the FTSE appears to have set up a combination correction. Where a simple abc correction has been followed by an ascending triangle c wave, (ABCDE). This possible count is giving quite an optimistic upside target limit. As Wave 3 of an impulse cannot be the shortest wave within an impulse wave of higher degree. Wave 3 on this count is less than the height of Wave 1, so we know that Wave 5 cannot move further than the highest of Wave 3 without negating this potential count. This level is up at 7136. This is the height of Wave 3 projected onto the low of corrective Wave e. So from an Elliott Wave perspective over this timescale there are bullish arguments for a move up through and beyond the all time highs, and that this strength could start to fail early in 2014. The highs of corrective waves b and d could be used as stop areas to negate this potential count, or the 2011 highs could be used for the more cautious. FTSE 100, Monthly Text last updated, February 4th, 2013 The monthly timescale naturally takes the long term view so the commentary in this section will only be updated as and when market events dictate. So regular readers of this report will only need to read the monthly and weekly sections on a relatively infrequent basis. However we include all the information to give new readers the full picture. The monthly graph for the FTSE 100 quite clearly shows how the index posted an extremely powerful move into the end of the last century, first red line. From the all time highs in the index at 6950 the FTSE slumped 50% to the 2003 lows. In hindsight we can see this move as an understandable and even justifiable re-examination of the strong gains posted in the previous 20-30 years. The market currently remains well above these lows. The FTSE remains in a trendless state, having posted lower highs in 2007, and higher lows in 2008, converging black lines. Retracement levels calculated from the all time highs to the 2003 lows create some interesting levels. We suspect that these levels will continue to be of use for the quarters ahead. The FTSE 100 remains in a trendless state over the long term, with lower highs and higher lows, trading in the shadow of the TMT sell-off. Moves under the longer term trend line, far right red diagonal line, could trigger the start of a more significant retracement, as seen with the breaks lower in 2001 and 2008. The breaks above the 2011 highs have opened up more optimistic long-term targets, with moves up to the 2007 highs now seen on the cards, while the strong longer term trend holds. S&P 500 Graph, Quarterly The long term S&P monthly graph from 1930-2013 is uploaded to show how the broader US index index has now moved up to post fresh all time highs, following the trading from the TMT led highs posted in 2000 and matching the moves posted in recent weeks by the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Nikkei 225, Quarterly, Semi-log Enclosed above is a quarterly graph on the Nikkei. We include this for those readers who may simply assume that all major stock markets are in a perennial bull trend, with only temporary bearish aberrations. This shows that G7 nations can be, and indeed some have been, in major bearish trends for over 25 years. CFD Sales/Traders 0044 (0) 207 894 8883 cfdsales@cantor.com Equity Spread Bet Sales 0044 (0) 207 894 8800 sales@cantorcapital.com Graphs Graph images are created on Bloomberg, and remain under copyright to Bloomberg. Depending on your email settings the images contained in this note may not be downloaded correctly on the first viewing. 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Losses can quickly exceed your initial deposit and thus require you to make additional deposits at short notice to maintain your positions. Leveraged products are not suitable for all customers. Please ensure you understand the risks involved before opening an account. You should ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if in doubt. CFE provides an execution only service and does not offer investment advice. These products are not intended for people under the age of 18 or for US residents. The distribution of this note in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this note comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. By accepting this note you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions.

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Day Ahead

Monday, April 29, 2013, Marketing Communication FTSE 100 Opening Call The FTSE is seen starting the week around unchanged UK Corporate Announcements Greene King reports that it has seen a resilient performance across all its businesses and expects to meet the full year targets, as 51 week LFL sales gained 3.1% Balfour Beatty warns that it sees significantly lower operating profits in 2013 and that market conditions continue to be difficult Rentokil Initial announces Q1 revenues of £644.8m from £616.4m and details it has sold City Link for £1 Aberdeen Asset Management announces H1 AUM of £212.3bn up 13% from September, and an underlying pre-tax profit of £222.8m on revenues of £516m Greggs warns that it now sees its full year profits slightly below the lower end of the range of estimates as 17 week comparable sales fell 4.4% UK Market News Lloyds details that it has sold its Spanish banking operations to Sabadell for €104m in cash, and sees a loss of around £250m on the sale The Times writes on how the vitriol between UKIP and The Tories has gained in recent days ahead of the local elections where the minority party is seen making a major dent in the Tory voting numbers Verizon has reportedly been informing analysts on how much it would be willing to pay for Vodafone’s stake in their mobile joint venture as it continues its lobbying to restart talks on the unit London homes have sold at the fastest rate since 2008 in April as the two tier market continues, according to data from Hometrack S&P details that it has cut its stance on Barrick Gold to BBB from BBB+ and with a negative outlook The FT writes that Intermediate Capital Group is in talks with Lloyds over a €400m collateralised loan obligation, which could be closed over the summer Sainsbury has reportedly hired Egon Zehnder to start sounding out potential CEO candidates to replace Justin King when he decides to step down Kenneth Clarke has stated that the UK economy could take a further three years to heal UK Analyst Changes Anglo American Raised To Neutral Vs Reduce At Nomura Enrc Raised To Neutral Vs Reduce At Nomura Reed Elsevier Cut To Neutral Vs Buy At Citi Sainsbury Cut To Neutral Vs Buy At Citi Ubm Raised To Buy Vs Neutral At Ubs UK Insider Buying Advanced Oncotherapy, (AVO), 1 insider(s) bought 8250000 shares, £0.02 Berendsen Plc, (BRSN), 1 insider(s) bought 1854 shares, £7.91 Billington Holdings Pl, (BILN), 1 insider(s) bought 900 shares, £0.43 Brammer Plc, (BRAM), 1 insider(s) bought 69750 shares, £3.26 Guinness Peat Group Pl, (GPG), 1 insider(s) bought 370000 shares, £0.3 London Mining Plc, (LOND), 1 insider(s) bought 5000 shares, £1.13 Nasstar Plc, (NASA), 1 insider(s) bought 190476 shares, £0.1 Norcon Plc, (NCON), 1 insider(s) bought 58521 shares, £0.15 Tesco Plc, (TSCO), 1 insider(s) bought 4086 shares, £3.64 Vernalis Plc, (VER), 1 insider(s) bought 107000 shares, £0.23 UK Insider Selling Bodycote Plc, (BOY), 1 insider(s) sold 27637 shares, £4.99 FTSE 100 Movers Major European Companies Reporting Atlas Copco AB, Q1, 2.671,  Deutsche Boerse AG, Q1, 0.92,  Erste Group Bank AG, Q1, 0.413,  Fiat SpA, Q1, -0.033,  Galp Energia SGPS SA, Q1, 0.083,  Luxottica Group SpA, Q1, 0.34,  Petroleum Geo-Services ASA, Q1, 0.288,  Pohjola Bank PLC, Q1, 0.205,  QIAGEN NV, Q1, 0.222,  Svenska Cellulosa AB, Q1, 1.612,  Swedish Match AB, Q1, 3.34,  TNT Express NV, Q1, 0.029 European Market Summary Italy could signal a European shift away from austerity this week as its new government attempts to alter course, despite the pressures from Germany on the required structural changes the concerns are that the political consensus is failing to gain enough support for the tough measures needed The Netherlands is preparing for tomorrow’s inauguration of King Willem-Alexander after Queen Beatrix announced back in January that she will cede the thrown to her eldest son Bloomberg details how the high profile divorce case between Dmity Rybolovlev, and his wife Elena, is opening up the opaque world of offshore tax havens, reports suggest that as few as 100,000 people own as much as $10tn of offshore assets France sells up to €8bn in bills at 14:50, Italy sells up to €6bn in bonds at 11:0 and Germany sells €3bn in bills at 11:30 Global Intraday Footprint Major US Stock Movers After Hours There were no major movers after hours on Friday S&P 500 Companies Reporting Eaton Corp PLC, Q1, 0.786,  Express Scripts Holding Co, Q1, 0.976,  Hartford Financial Services Group Inc, Q1, 0.82,  Loews Corp, Q1, 0.84,  Masco Corp, Q1, 0.135,  Newmont Mining Corp, Q1, 0.772,  Plum Creek Timber Co Inc, Q1, 0.323,  Roper Industries Inc, Q1, 1.222 US Market News Actavis was in the news late last week on reports it was in merger talks with Valeant, however reports over the weekend suggest these talks have already stalled over price Barron’s suggests that Ecolab could gain 20% as its water treatment technology is required in the fracking industry It also suggests that International Paper could gain 30%, and that Layne Christensen could gain 50% over 2 years Taylor Capital is to replace K Swiss in the S&P SmallCap 600 Talk that PepsiCo may be considering a move for food and drinks group Mondelez have cooled in recent days Bloomberg details how the Merrill Lynch Global Broad market Sovereign Plus Index dropped to 1.34% last week, down from 3.28% just five years ago as demand for bond stays at record highs Mexico has kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.0% Overnight Market News Some Asian markets were closed today, so overall volumes were light, but indices that were open largely gained as returning optimism on gold buoyed sentiment Shinzo Abe is due to make a first visit to Russia by a Japanese PM for over a decade, Japan is Russia’s second largest market behind China, but they are yet to sign a formal peace treaty since the end of World War II as tensions remain high and the parties continue to dispute the ownership of some islands off the Southern Kurils China details that as part of its crackdown on abuses of vehicle management it will no longer allow military plates on luxury cars Top FX News Pimco has stated that Scandinavian currencies remain interesting from both a relative domestic fiscal position and relative interest rate position Top Commodity Copper prices dipped 0.7% on some concerns ahead of US growth numbers out this afternoon Economic Data Due 10:00 Eurozone April Consumer Confidence, -22.3 exp. -22.3 previous 13:30 US March Personal Income, 0.4% exp. 1.1% previous 15:00 US March Pending Homes, 1.0% exp. -0.4% previous Economic Events US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates US Personal Income CFD Sales/Traders 0044 (0) 207 894 8883 cfdsales@cantor.com Equity Spread Bet Sales 0044 (0) 207 894 8800 sales@cantorcapital.com Footnotes FTSE 100 Call as at 6:45am Analyst Changes, as at 6:30am Times given are UK Local Time, (GMT or GMT +1 during BST) Insider Deals data compiled from Director/PDMR Shareholding forms published in the past 24 hours (ex weekends). Major European Companies defined as those companies in the STOXX Europe 600 Index FTSE 100 Movers, Blue >0.25%, Green <0.25% > -0.25%, Red < -0.25%, Font size dependent on percentage size of move This note is compiled using information / charts from financial data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters, as well as from the general financial / business media Regulatory Disclaimer This market commentary note (“note”) has been issued by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Cantor Index is a trading name of CFE. This note is defined by the FCA as a marketing communication. This note has been prepared and distributed for information purposes only and represents the personal views and opinions of the sender. This note is not “investment research”, a “research recommendation” or a product of the Research Department. 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