|
 |
|
Monday, September 23, 2013, Marketing Communication
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
FTSE 100, Daily, Semi-log
|
 |
|
The FTSE stays above the major support at 6390, the 38.2% retracement level calculated from the 2012 lows to the 2013 highs. Price action is also above the near term support, blackline.
The Stochastic have moved up towards overbought areas in recent days and looks to be attempting to turn over. However while price remains above the 6518 near term support the overbought stochastic is not a major concern.
The more dominant picture on the FTSE remains its under-performance relative to the S&P 500. The graph at the bottom of this note details how the S&P 500 has posted a strong bullish trend over the past 12 months, moving up to fresh all time highs last week. The FTSE remains under its July, 2013, and May 2013 highs, and trades well under its all time highs.
So the indices continue to point out that global investors have increasing confidence on the recovery on the US economy and its impact on US stocks, and are less convinced on the outlook for the UK economy. Leaving a decent outlook for the Q4 ahead on the FTSE, buoyed by the more optimistic outlook in US markets rather than due to strong expectations on the UK names.
|
|
FTSE 100, Weekly, Semi-log
|
 |
|
Last updated, June 2013
The graph above throws up a possible medium term Elliott Wave count on the FTSE 100. We can see how from the 2009 lows there was a fairly clear impulse move higher, Red 1-5, followed by a simple expanded flat abc correction.
From these 2011 lows the FTSE has posted the start of a new bullish impulse wave higher, with the current price action in Wave 4. Elliott Wave rules dictate that if this count is correct on any future weakness the FTSE cannot move into the range of Wave 1. As a result we would expect significant support from the Wave 1 highs, Gold line, which coincides with the psychologically important level at 6,000.
This also suggests that Wave 5 ahead is set to post moves above the highs posted in May 2013. So using this count over the medium to longer term there are bullish arguments for a move up through and beyond the all time highs in the months ahead, and that this strength could start to fail early in 2014. 6,000 can be used as a level to negate this bullish count.
So in June the FTSE dropped down towards some major support areas, and bullish trend lines, which attracted buying interest from the longer term players. Moves under the 6,000 area would start to create more serious downside concerns, while with the recent leg higher, off this pivotal support, has to date confirmed the optimistic count.
|
|
S&P 500, Daily, Semi-log
|
 |
|
As highlighted above the S&P 500 posted moves to fresh all time highs last week, buoyed by the surprise move by the Fed to delay the start by QE tapering. Weaning the markets off the stimulus measures continues to be the major focus for the Fed, walking the tightrope of removing stimulus measures without stoking fears of interest rate rises.
The S&P would seem to have made enough gains in recent days and a period of minor consolidation ahead is probable. However as in recent months while the view on inflation and interest rates remains unchanged any such minor weakness would be seen as yet another buying opportunity. Leaving a positive outlook for Q4, with some minor profit taking possible in the days ahead.
|
|
FTSE 100, S&P 500 Overlay Graph
|
 |
|
Graph detailing the clear out-performance of S&P 500, red, over the FTSE 100, blue, over the past year
|
|
CFD Sales/Traders
- 0044 (0) 207 894 8883
- cfdsales@cantor.com
|
|
| |
Equity Spread Bet Sales
- 0044 (0) 207 894 8800
- sales@cantorcapital.com
|
|
|
Images
- Depending on your email settings the images contained in this note may not be downloaded correctly. Select the view 'Web version' link on the header to open a browser window that will display the full note.
- Graph images are created on Bloomberg, and remain under copyright to Bloomberg.
|
|
Unsubscribing From E-mails
If you would like to be removed from all Cantor Capital Commentary notes then please click on the ‘Update Preferences’ link on the header, or the ‘Edit your subscription’ link on the footer and select the ‘Unsubscribe’ link at the bottom of this page that appears. This will remove your email from all Cantor Capital Commentary distribution lists.
|
|
Regulatory Disclaimer
This market commentary note (“note”) has been issued by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Cantor Index is a trading name of CFE. This note is defined by the FCA as a marketing communication. This note has been prepared and distributed for information purposes only and represents the personal views and opinions of the sender. This note is not “investment research”, a “research recommendation” or a product of the Research Department. Please be aware that the CFE Research Department may issue a formal recommendation and target price on the stocks mentioned, which may differ from the opinion given here. This note may contain information obtained by CFE from third parties; the source of information will usually be disclosed. CFE makes no representation and gives no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this note. Any person placing reliance upon this note does so at their own risk. Investors should consider this note as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The investment discussed in this note may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. CFE, its officers, employees and affiliates shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs or claims howsoever arising from any inaccuracies or omissions in this note or any reliance on this note. The recipient is strongly recommended to see independent legal, tax and financial advice. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this note relates; either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors.
This note should not be considered to be a solicitation nor an offer of advice for the purposes of the sale or purchase of any security, investment or derivative. The information contained in this note is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision and should not be considered a recommendation by CFE or any other person in relation to any of the companies, stock, commodities, currencies or other markets mentioned / referred to in this note. All the information contained herein is based upon information available to the public and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, the information contained in this note has not been verified by CFE and CFE undertakes no obligation to provide recipients of this note with any additional information or any update to or correction of the information contained in this note. This note is provided by CFE and may be forwarded unamended and in its entirety. This note may not be used in whole or in part to create any other work. All rights reserved.
FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE [2013]. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.
CFE is authorised and regulated by the FCA under Firm Reference Number 149380. CFE – The Financial Services Register Information: http://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=61341
Registered in England No. 02505767
Registered Address: 17 Crosswall, London, EC3N 2LB
|
|
Risk Warning
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and is not suitable for all customers. Furthermore, margined products use leverage to increase the level of exposure to the product, and as a result your losses may substantially exceed your initial deposit and require you to make additional deposits at short notice. Prior to trading leveraged CFDs, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience and risk appetite and should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Spread Bets are leveraged products placing your capital at risk. Losses can quickly exceed your initial deposit and thus require you to make additional deposits at short notice to maintain your positions. Leveraged products are not suitable for all customers. Please ensure you understand the risks involved before opening an account. You should ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if in doubt.
CFE provides an execution only service and does not offer investment advice.
These products are not intended for people under the age of 18 or for US residents.
The distribution of this note in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this note comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. By accepting this note you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions.
|
|
