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Day Ahead, November 19th

Monday, 19 November 2012

Cantor Opening Call
  • The FTSE is called to open up around 40-50 points this morning
UK Corporate Announcements
  • Mitie reports an H1 adjusted operating profit of £52.9m on revenues of £1.03bn and states that 98% of the full year budget has been secured end September and stays confident on its outlook
  • Intertek announces that its full year adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be stable
  • Lamprell states that it sees a gradual return to profitability in 2013 with broadly flat revenues seen, but does detail that is now sees a much greater loss for the full year than previously anticipated
  • Costain announces that it continues to perform well
  • Chime Communications stated that trading profits for the full year will be in line
  • Majestic Wine announces an H1 pre-tax profit of £9.2m with 6 week same store sales up 1.2%
  • Diploma reports a full year adjusted pre-tax profit of £52.6m with full year sales up 13% and states that it is well placed to make further progress
UK Market News
  • The FT suggests that one in ten UK businesses are ‘zombies’ being kept artificially alive due to ‘ultra-loose’ monetary policy and the lender reluctance to write off bad loans
  • UK carriers will be eyed after reports that Virgin Atlantic is set to announce today a move into short haul flights from Heathrow
  • The Sunday Times suggests that BP plans to buy back as much as £3.7bn of its own stock, and as the group is increasingly being mentioned as a potential takeover target
  • The paper also suggests that the network of 300 RBS branches could be nationalised and turned into a new lender, if a buyer was not found
  • While HSBC details that it is in talks to sell its stake in Ping An Insurance, worth around $9bn
  • The Association of British Insurers is expected to detail that political interference, regulatory changes and opaque accounts were making British banking shares ‘’uninvestible’
  • The Bank of England’s Miles has stated that the central bank is able to do more to boost growth, if the current slow conditions were to persist
FTSE 100 Movers
UK Analyst Upgrades
  • Diageo Pt Raised To 2,050P Vs 1,900P At Socgen, Stays Buy
  • Genus Added To Conviction Buy List At Goldman
  • Next Added To Credit Suisse’S Focus List
  • Next Rated New Outperform At Credit Suisse, Pt 4,200P
  • Paragon Pt Raised To 280P Vs 230P At Berenberg, Stays Buy
  • Premier Oil Pt Cut To 500P Vs 525P At Socgen, Stays Buy
  • Premier Oil Raised To Hold From Sell At Liberum
  • Wolfson Microelectronics Pt Raised To 230P Vs 200P At Liberum
UK Analyst Cuts
  • Pennon Cut To Underperform Vs Neutral At Bofaml
  • Pennon Group Cut to Equalweight from Overweight at Barclays
UK Insider Buying
  • Buy IMI, Remains Top UK Engineering Pick, Citi Says
  • Eurasian Natural Resources Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital
  • Lonmin Raised To Buy From Reduce At Nomura
  • Diageo Raised To Overweight From Equalweight At Barclays
UK Insider Selling
  • Sell Bwin, Short-Term Trends Weak, Citi says
  • G4S Cut To Neutral Vs Outperform At Credit Suisse
  • Serco Cut To Neutral Vs Outperform At Credit Suisse
  • Invensys Pt Cut To 254P Vs 270P At Morgan Stanley
Global Footprint
Major European Companies Reporting
  • AHufvudstaden AB, Q3, 0.815,  Mitie Group PLC, S1, 0,  Subsea 7 SA, Q3, 0.409
European Market Summary
  • The FT writes that EU officials have started to work on a long term budget that did not include Britain, as frustrations continue the UK and its stance on required much needed reforms, while David Milliband states that the UK risks sleepwalking toward an EU exit
  • After the close Fugro announces that it was cutting its full year outlook and that its CEO is to leave
  • SAS Group states that it may shutdown its activities if talks with labor unions were to drag on, with crews on all outbound flights informed to carry enough cash to meet their own expenses
  • Nokia sells Nok3bn in bonds at 11:10, while France sells up to €7bn in bills at 15:00
Major US Stock Movers After Hours
  • Applied Materials gained around 1% in late trading despite announcing forecast just under the consensus, but stayed relatively optimistic for 2013
S&P 500 Companies Reporting
  • Agilent Technologies Inc, Q4, 0.799,  Lowe's Cos Inc, Q3, 0.35,  Tyson Foods Inc, Q4, 0.439,  Urban Outfitters Inc, Q3, 0.414
US Market News
  • The US corporate reporting season continues to wind down, ahead of Thanksgiving this Thursday and half day trading on Friday
  • The recent sell off in the US has brought the S&P 500 price-earnings ratio down to historically low levels, with some analysts suggesting that fears over the fiscal cliff have now been largely priced in, with current levels looking extremely attractive for the longer term
  • Yahoo has reportedly held talks with Facebook which could end Yahoo’s relationship with Microsoft
  • Tim Geithner has stated that a deal to avert the fiscal cliff was ‘within out grasp’
  • Cisco announces that it is buying Meraki for $1.2bn in cash
  • Barron’s suggest that Bank of New York Mellon and JP Morgan could gain on expected share buy back increases seen ahead
  • The paper also highlights analysts that see Lear Corp as potentially more than doubling in the next few years, citing a potential windfall of its 23% stake in IAC Group with may list 
  • Barron’s also writes that Leucadia National looks positive following its acquisition of Jefferies
  • JPMorgan agrees to pay $297 to settle an SEC lawsuit into home loans
  • Cablevision has reportedly hired JP Morgan to advise on a sale of its Bresnan Broadband unit
  • Despite the recent market sell off VIX stays at relatively low levels, at 16.41 yesterday and at its lowest for a few weeks
Overnight Market News
  • Billabong America’s president is reportedly looking at a possible leveraged buyout, with the stock gaining 10% on the story
  • New home prices in China gained in October in more cities than in September, 35 out of 70, with 17 seeing falls
  • President Obama is in Myanmar, (formerly Burma) the first such visit for a US president on a three day visit to the region
Major Global IPOs Due Today
  • Alon USA Partners LP, (ALDW), 10m, USD 19 - 21
  • Hudson's Bay Co, (HBC), 18.6m, CAD 18.5 - 21.5
  • Middlefield Can-Global REIT Income Fund, (RCO-U), 15m, CAD 10
  • North American REIT Income Fund, (NRF-U), 10m, CAD 10
  • Raven Rock Strategic Income Fund, (RRF-U), 10m, CAD 10
FX Summary
  • The yen moved down to a seven month low today, as the Bank of Japan starts its two day meeting as the market continues to price in a new government at next months general elections
  • China’s central bank governor has stated that the next step in the overhaul of the exchange rate system will yuan convertibility
Economic Data Due
  • 00:01 UK November Rightmove House Prices, 3.5% previous
  • 15:00 US October Existing Home Sales, 4.74m exp. 4.75m previous
Economic Events
  • 08:30 EU Foreign, Defence Ministers Meet in Brussels
  • 09:00 WTO Dispute Settlement Body Meets
  • 10:30 UK Business Secretary Cable speaks at CBI Conference
15:00 US Existing Home Sales
Contact Us
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  • Email:- Sales@cantorcapital.com
Footnotes
  • All times given are BST
  • Cantor Call, as at 7:15am
  • S&P Companies Reporting: (BMO) - Before Market Open (AMC) - After Market Close
  • Analyst Changes, as at 6:45am
  • Insider Deals data compiled from Director/PDMR Shareholding forms published in the past 24 hours (ex weekends).
  • Major European Companies defined as those companies in the STOXX Europe 600 Index
  • FTSE 100 Movers, Blue >0.25%, Green <0.25%, Red <-0.25%, Font size dependent on percentage size of move
  • This note is compiled using information / charts from financial data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters, as well as from the general financial / business media
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Risk WarningFull Risk Warning

Spread Bets are leveraged products placing your capital at risk. Losses can quickly exceed your initial deposit and thus require you to make additional deposits at short notice to maintain your positions. Leveraged products are not suitable for all customers. Please ensure you understand the risks involved before opening an account. Cantor Index provides an execution only service and does not offer investment advice. You should ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if necessary. These products are not intended for people under the age of 18 or for US residents.