Day Ahead - Thursday 15th November

Cantor Opening Call The FTSE is seen opening down around 50 points lower this morning

UK Corporate Announcements 3i Group details an group NAV of £2.73/share from £2.79 in March and states that investment activity remains subdued National Grid states that it is pleased with its progress as it details an h1 pre-tax profit of £1.15bn ahead of the estimates of £1.1bn Centrica states that market conditions for gas stations remains challenging but that trading has been in line with the expectations Premier Oil states that its producing fields are performing well Resolution announces nine month sales of £8709m and that its capital position remains robust but that its international division was below par Rexam states that trading at its healthcare unit has been under the expectations Amlin states that the underwriting environment from July has been encouraging and is well placed to absorb the claims from Sandy Investec  announces an H1 EPS of 16.8p from 19.2p with total funds under management at £62.4bn from £61.6bn WS Atkins announces H1 sales of £815m just missing the forecasts but keeps its outlook unchanged Invensys announces H1 revenues of £1.2bn and sees material progress ahead in H2

UK Market News The UK business press details how Mervyn King stated yesterday that Britain is on a ‘long and winding road’ to economic recovery and faces several more years of slow growth The Telegraph writes on how the MD of John Lewis has joined the recent corporate tax debate stating that the government must tackle the international accounting issues, raised recently at Amazon and Starbucks, as the current situation was driving UK based retailers out of business The head of RBS has stated that ‘small countries’ don’t often have small banks, suggesting the banking group could relocate out of Scotland if was to seek independence The CFO of Pearson has refused to rule out a possible future sale of the FT Moody’s states that it will keep assessing the AAA rating of the UK in 2013 amid the slowing economy The FT suggests that ICAP is to close its NYSE floor trading operations Qatar details today how it will vote on the Glencore’s moves for Xstrata, abstaining on the MIA resolution and continues to see merit in the combination BP confirms today that it is in advanced talks with the US Dept. of Justice on settling claims over the Gulf of Mexico spill, but that no agreements have been made yet In UK political news the coalition government faces a test today, with the bi-election in Corby, the seat vacated as Louise Mensch left, and John Prescott is amongst those standing to be a police commissioner, voting in general is expected to break the records for poor turnouts The UK sells £2bn in 2052 bonds at 10:30

FTSE 100 Movers

UK Analyst Upgrades Ag Barr Raised To Buy From Hold At Socgen Ag Barr Raised To Overweight From Equalweight At Barclays Balfour Beatty Raised To Buy From Add At Numis Britvic Raised to 'Buy' at Societe Generale Great Portland Pt Raised 4% To 480P At Exane; Kept At Neutral Sainsbury Pt Raised 8% To 325P At Exane; Kept At Underperform

UK Analyst Cuts Icap Pt Cut To 370P Vs 425P At Berenberg, Stays Hold

UK Insider Buying Admiral Group Plc, (ADM), 1 insider(s) bought 10,000 shares, £10.81 Ashcourt Rowan, (ARP), 1 insider(s) bought 31,645 shares, £1.58 Chemring Group Plc, (CHG), 3 insider(s) bought 103,000 shares, £2.24 Fidessa Group Plc, (FDSA), 2 insider(s) bought 12,941 shares, £12.74 First Derivatives Plc, (FDP), 1 insider(s) bought 10,000 shares, £5.35 Metric Property Invest, (METP), 3 insider(s) bought 196,413 shares, £1.02 Norcros Plc, (NXR), 1 insider(s) bought 205,000 shares, £0.13 Persimmon Plc, (PSN), 1 insider(s) bought 65,000 shares, £7.58

UK Insider Selling First Derivatives Plc, (FDP), 1 insider(s) sold 10,000 shares, £5.35

Global Footprint

Major European Companies Reporting 3i Group PLC, S1, 0.04,  Antofagasta PLC, Q3, 0,  GN Store Nord A/S, Q3, 0.659,  GSW Immobilien AG, Q3, 0.31,  Iliad SA, Q3, 0,  Invensys PLC, S1, 0,  Investec PLC, S1, 0.22,  Koninklijke Ahold NV, Q3, 0.228,  Merck KGaA, Q3, 1.908,  National Grid PLC, S1, 0.21,  Zurich Insurance Group AG, Q3, 6.495

European Market Summary Bloomberg suggest that the French transaction tax misses the mark as speculators are able to avoid the levy by using CFDs, speculators were targeted as the major reason for the implementation of the tax The EU stated yesterday that the budget plans detailed by the Spanish prime minister are enough to satisfy the EU, as the tone of the EU authorities continues to soften in recent week’s on concerns that the tough measures, while required, would be politically difficult to force through quickly

Major US Stock Movers After Hours NetApp gained over 10% in late trading as it announces Q3 profits ahead of the forecasts and expands its planned share buyback, others in the sector gained in sympathy, Brocade, Fusion-io Petsmart posted gains of 6% in late trading as it increases its full year EPS targets Velti was amongst the major movers, down 22% as it sells its Greek and Balkan assets for $23.5m Diamond Foods came off 19% as it restates it earnings for the previous two years

S&P 500 Companies Reporting Target Corp, Q3, 0.797,  Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Q3, 1.072,  Ross Stores Inc, Q3, 0.721,  Gap Inc/The, Q3, 0.62,  Applied Materials Inc, Q4, 0.033,  Intuit Inc, Q1, -0.062,  Dell Inc, Q3, 0.398,  Dollar Tree Inc, Q3, 0.492,  Viacom Inc, Q4, 1.162,  GameStop Corp, Q3, 0.327,  Autodesk Inc, Q3, 0.434,  Helmerich & Payne Inc, Q4, 1.242,  Ltd Brands Inc, Q3, 0.243

US Market News The Dow yesterday fell to its lowest level since June, as the nervousness on the fiscal cliff continues, former Senator Chris Dodd states that ‘you have about six or eight weeks’ to get this right and former Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz states that a contingency plan may be necessary Texas Instruments announces that it is to cut a further 1,700 jobs and will take a $325m charge Netanyahu has stated that President Obama has supported Israel’s right to defend itself as Israel targeted around 100 rocket sites in Gaza and the targeted killing of Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari Akamai has postponed its planned investor summit until after a new CFO has been appointed and confirms its full year outlook Hostess Brands the Twinkies and Wonder bread maker states that it will cease operations and liquidate unless enough of its striking workers return The Fed meeting minutes detail that ‘a number’ of FOMC officials favoured additional stimulus in 2013 Berkshire Hathaway details that it has taken a 4m share stake in Deere & Co US based Apollo is reportedly the lead contender to buy Aviva’s US Life unit

Overnight Market News Xi Jinping has now replaced Hu Jintao as China Communist Party Leader and central bank governor Zhou Ziaochuan is to step aside and by replaced by Vice Premier Wang Qishan The Shangahi Securities Journal writes that Qianhai a city close to Shenzhen is set to release detailed regulations governing an economic zone to test full account convertibility for the yuan by the end of the month China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman has criticised the US for ‘indulging in a Cold War mentality’ as the US Congressional advisory panel calls for the US to do more to protect itself from Chinese based cyber espionage Espirit gained as much as 33% after its former chairman Michael Ying doubled his stake in the retailer which continues with its turnaround plans

Major Global IPOs Due Today Careerlink Co Ltd, (6070), 1.38m, JPY 420 Cemex Latam Holdings SA, (CLH), 148.164m, COP 12250 Discovery 2012 Flow-Through LP, (0216104D), 1.76m, CAD 25 Ilmatar Windpower Oyj, (0613614D), 1.023m, EUR 8.5 Intai Technology Corp, (4163), 3.099m, TWD 70 Ruckus Wireless Inc, (RKUS), 8.4m, USD 13 - 15

FX Summary The yen has now fallen to a six month low as the markets price in that elections in December could hand power over to the opposition party which has advocated more aggressive monetary easing The Canadian dollar has fallen to a three month low as the finance minister states that he will delay plans to balance the federal budget for one year citing the lower commodity prices

Commodity Summary The conflict in Gaza keeps tensions in the region at extreme levels, with oil prices moving up as a result

Economic Data Due 07:00 German Q3 GDP, y/y, 0.8% exp. 1.0% previous 09:30 UK October Retail Sales, -0.1% exp. 0.6% previous 10:00 Eurozone October CPI, 0.2% exp. 0.7% previous 13:30 US October CPI 0.1% exp. 0.6% previous 13:30 US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, 355k previous 15:00 US November Philadelphia Fed. 2.0 exp. 5.7 previous

Economic Events Fed's Bernanke Speaks in Atlanta

US Weekly Jobless Claims

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Footnotes All times given are BST Cantor Call, as at 7:15am S&P Companies Reporting: (BMO) - Before Market Open (AMC) - After Market Close Analyst Changes, as at 6:45am Insider Deals data compiled from Director/PDMR Shareholding forms published in the past 24 hours (ex weekends). Major European Companies defined as those companies in the STOXX Europe 600 Index FTSE 100 Movers, Blue >0.25%, Green <0.25%, Red <-0.25%, Font size dependent on percentage size of move This note is compiled using information / charts from financial data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters, as well as from the general financial / business media

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