TODAY’S FAYRE

TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday 27^th November 2012

 “Too many of the best cells in my body  are itching, feeling jagged, turning raw 

 in this spring chill. It’s two thousand and four 

and I don’t know a soul who doesn’t feel small 

among the numbers. Razor small. 

 Look down these days to see your feet 

mistrust the pavement and your blood tests 

turn the doctor’s expression grave. 

Look up to catch eclipses, gold leaf, comets, 

angels, chandeliers, out of the corner of your eye, 

 join them if you like, learn astrophysics, or 

learn folksong, human sacrifice, mortality, 

flying, fishing, sex without touching much. 

Don’t trouble, though, to head anywhere but the sky.”

I have a little shadow that goes in and out with me,

And what can be the use of him is more than I can see.

He is very, very like me from the heels up to the head;

And I see him jump before me, when I jump into my bed.

The funniest thing about him is the way he likes to grow—

Not at all like proper children, which is always very slow;

For he sometimes shoots up taller like an india-rubber ball,

And he sometimes gets so little that there's none of him at all.

He hasn't got a notion of how children ought to play,

And can only make a fool of me in every sort of way.

He stays so close beside me, he's a coward you can see;

I'd think shame to stick to nursie as that shadow sticks to me!

One morning, very early, before the sun was up,

I rose and found the shining dew on every buttercup;

But my lazy little shadow, like an arrant sleepy-head,

Had stayed at home behind me and was fast asleep in bed.

I have a little shadow that goes in and out with me,

And what can be the use of him is more than I can see.

He is very, very like me from the heels up to the head;

And I see him jump before me, when I jump into my bed.

The funniest thing about him is the way he likes to grow—

Not at all like proper children, which is always very slow;

For he sometimes shoots up taller like an india-rubber ball,

And he sometimes gets so little that there's none of him at all.

He hasn't got a notion of how children ought to play,

And can only make a fool of me in every sort of way.

He stays so close beside me, he's a coward you can see;

I'd think shame to stick to nursie as that shadow sticks to me!

One morning, very early, before the sun was up,

I rose and found the shining dew on every buttercup;

But my lazy little shadow, like an arrant sleepy-head,

Had stayed at home behind me and was fast asleep in bed.

I have a little shadow that goes in and out with me,

And what can be the use of him is more than I can see.

He is very, very like me from the heels up to the head;

And I see him jump before me, when I jump into my bed.

The funniest thing about him is the way he likes to grow—

Not at all like proper children, which is always very slow;

For he sometimes shoots up taller like an india-rubber ball,

And he sometimes gets so little that there's none of him at all.

He hasn't got a notion of how children ought to play,

And can only make a fool of me in every sort of way.

He stays so close beside me, he's a coward you can see;

I'd think shame to stick to nursie as that shadow sticks to me!

One morning, very early, before the sun was up,

I rose and found the shining dew on every buttercup;

But my lazy little shadow, like an arrant sleepy-head,

Had stayed at home behind me and was fast asleep in bed.

I have a little shadow that goes in and out with me,

And what can be the use of him is more than I can see.

He is very, very like me from the heels up to the head;

And I see him jump before me, when I jump into my bed.

The funniest thing about him is the way he likes to grow—

Not at all like proper children, which is always very slow;

For he sometimes shoots up taller like an india-rubber ball,

And he sometimes gets so little that there's none of him at all.

He hasn't got a notion of how children ought to play,

And can only make a fool of me in every sort of way.

He stays so close beside me, he's a coward you can see;

I'd think shame to stick to nursie as that shadow sticks to me!

One morning, very early, before the sun was up,

I rose and found the shining dew on every buttercup;

But my lazy little shadow, like an arrant sleepy-head,

Had stayed at home behind me and was fast asleep in bed.

Jo Shapcott – Poet & Author – 1953-

After 13 hours of hard-nosed talks, which finished in the small hours, the EU finally released the desperately needed €25 billion ‘bail-out’ funds Greece requires to keep the country going.  Greece has been waiting since June for this money. The sense of euphoria expressed by Mario Draghi, J-C Juncker and Olli Rehn, bears, in my opinion, little resemblance to reality. Comments such this deal will restore confidence in Europe is just pure rhetoric.  I would have expected better from the first class President of the ECB. This bail-out was always going to happen come hell or high water.  The fact that it is the biggest carve up since a knife was introduced to roast beef is irrelevant. Chancellor Merkel and the EU ministers had already ordained that Greece would be bailed out – charade or no charade – and regardless of whether Greece can service and repay debt as well as grow its economy.  These proposals to me, defy gravity!

Greece has promised to cut debt to GDP ratio from 144% to 124% by 2020.  €40 billion of debt will be cut. €11 billion of profit from purchases of Greek bonds by the ECB will be repatriated to Greece and interest rates on loans will be cut to the bone.  The market will receive the news positively, but with cynical caution.  At the day of reckoning somewhere down the line, it will be recognised that this deal should never have been done.  Greece should go in peace and reintroduce a devalued Drachma! Greece would then thrive.  Contagion should not be a problem as the banks should have made sufficient contingency plans to deal with write-downs and I do not buy the Russian infiltration of Greece, having been granted independence.

Having had time to ruminate over the appointment of Mark Carney as the next Governor of the Bank of England, it is important that the country and the City should support and endorse his appointment, despite, in some and in my case, huge disappointment for Paul Tucker.  Mr Carney’s credentials are impeccable.  The fact that he is Chairman of the Financial Stability Board illustrates the perception that he is respected, well liked and probably a very good communicator. A 5 or 8 year tenure - Does it show a lack of commitment?  I don’t think so!  I think Mr Carney is a career ‘junkie’ and why not?  5 years is plenty of time to leave his mark as an influential central banker.

Mark Carney is unlikely to say much about his role until next year.  He is still employed by the Bank of Canada and Sir Mervyn King is still Governor.  The fact that Chancellor Osborne felt disinclined to pick a British person for the appointment is a bit of an indictment. When the time comes I think Mr Carney will want to implement fresh regulation sooner rather than later. I think he may be more flexible about the movement of interest rates and the implementation of quantitative easing. As an outsider looking in, it will be interesting to see how radical he is.  Canada’s clean bill of banking health, after it’s worst recession, was more the brain child of Carney’s predecessor David Dodge.  Mr Carney has just carried on Dodge’s dynasty.  In fairness Canada did manage to avoid sub-prime lending, which no doubt attracted Chancellor Osborne. One wonders whether Sir Mervyn King went in to bat for Paul Tucker.  They have some previous with each other.  We shall probably never know!

What of Paul Tucker?  Having been mutilated by Tyrie’s mob at the TSC over LIBOR, when Tucker should have passed the buck on bank regulation in the direction of the FSA, his goose was probably cooked.  Paul Tucker is such a decent man; so he answered the questions. He may rue the day he did so.  Sadly he was implicated by an irrelevant conversation with Bob Diamond. Far be it for me to decide on Paul Tucker’s future.  He is very much his own man! However despite encouraging and veiled support for his role as a deputy governor from the Governor and Chancellor, Paul finds himself in an invidious position. He also knows Mark Carney extremely well.  If Paul was not good enough to land the spoils yesterday, why would he be in a better space in 5 years?  Also the Chancellor only mentioned Charlie Bean staying on for another year to help the transition of a new Governor.  Tucker was not mentioned in that capacity.

There must be a huge temptation for Paul to head-off in to the sunset and take a really well paid job in the commercial world – an investment or international bank – He would be worth his weight in gold.  Maybe the BIS or the World Bank beckons?  Who knows?  All I do know is that 30 years invaluable experience at the BOE with a massive reputation and a huge address book will head for the front door of the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street.  The City would miss him.  However life moves on and support will and should be forthcoming for Governor elect Carney.

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