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Today's Fayre

Friday, 16 November 2012


TODAY’S FAYRE – Friday 16th November 2012

“I have a rendezvous with Death
At some disputed barricade,
When Spring comes back with rustling shade
And apple-blossoms fill the air —
I have a rendezvous with Death
When Spring brings back blue days and fair.

It may be he shall take my hand
And lead me into his dark land
And close my eyes and quench my breath —
It may be I shall pass him still.
I have a rendezvous with Death
On some scarred slope of battered hill,
When Spring comes round again this year
And the first meadow-flowers appear.

God knows ’twere better to be deep
Pillowed in silk and scented down,
Where Love throbs out in blissful sleep,
Pulse nigh to pulse, and breath to breath,
Where hushed awakenings are dear . . .
But I’ve a rendezvous with Death
At midnight in some flaming town,
When Spring trips north again this year,
And I to my pledged word am true,
I shall not fail that rendezvous.”

Alan Seeger – poet – 1888-1916


Cricket – I feared the worst! England’s cricketers are being made to toil on the 2nd day’s play in Ahmedabad. By tea today India may well be close to 600 for the loss of not too many wickets.  I suppose they can take heart from the fact that they could be playing in Bangladesh. Just look at the current match West Indies 527 for 4 dec – Bangladesh 556 all out. What chance of a result in that match! I hope we see Cook, Compton, Trott, Bell and Pietersen in their best light, thus preventing an ignominious defeat in this match.


Seeing Lord McAlpine on TV yesterday was a very sorrowful sight. Obviously, like millions of others, I was embarrassed at the toll it had taken!  He clearly has not been very well and no doubt what he has been subjected to by the disgraceful attempt to defame his stainless character will not have helped. Let’s hope there will be a satisfactory conclusion to this most unsavoury episode with a sensible and speedy agreement on damages. 

Yesterday morning BP’s share price fell by 3% ahead of an expected settlement with the DOJ as a result of the ecological disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in April 2010, where 11 people were tragically killed.  The DOJ fined BP a total of $4.5 billion - $1.25 billion was the fine imposed and $3.25 billion the settlement with the SEC, conservation of the damaged area and fisheries.  There are of course the civil actions to be dealt with, which will amount to billions of Dollars which BP will vigorously defend.  As we know BP has ring-fenced $20 billion at the insistence of President Obama for this purpose. Two BP members of staff will be charged with manslaughter. I must confess, regardless of the gravity of this offence, which I am not making light of, I did not care for the jingoistic tone of the DOJ. BP employs thousands of people in the US and a sensible resolution must be in everyone’s interest. Of course there must be retribution. However I am just left with the impression that the US has turned very anti the UK recently in the same manner as the LIBOR manipulation manifested itself. I would like to see some US banks in the dock and not have their misdemeanours buried on a good day to bury bad news!


I hope, that in the light of the TNK/Rosneft settlement having been resolved, that we can start to see some light at the end of the tunnel for the UK’s oil titan, which seems to have reeled from one crisis to another for a decade. This is easily the largest corporate criminal fine, followed by Pfizer’s fine of $1.3 billion for misbranding drugs such as Lipitor and Viagra in 2009, followed by the Exxon Valdes disaster in 1987, which cost $1 billion.


Yesterday that great supermarket juggernaut came rolling in to town – WALMART.  It posted sales totalling $113 billion for the last quarter with total sales up 3.4%; profits were up 9% at $3.6 billion.  However like for like sales were only up 1.5% when estimations suggested 1.8%.  The market was disappointed and the shares fell by 3%! – Amazing.  Walmart, of course, owns ASDA.  Sales unfortunately in the UK only increased by 0.3% from 0.7% last time due to the cautious nature of the consumer who has less disposable income than he/she had.  This has been reflected in all supermarket sales with only Sainsbury really bucking the trend.  However ASDA’s market share is 17.5% - up 10 basis points on last year.

NEWS IN BRIEF
It looks as though the tax payer has done his dough on Northern Rock – just the £2 billion. The outlook on the £75 billion used to bail-out RBS and Lloyds does not look like the safest bet in the world, but talk of writing these vast sums off now, strikes me as a little premature. I should think the goofy-teeth grin of Sir Richard Branson is seen as confirmation of laughing his socks off at having robbed Northern Rock blind, in buying its really coveted branches for £931 million for Virgin Money. There is no doubt that the Treasury feels frustrated by the fact that the previous administration’s monumental collective failure to respond quickly enough to the banking crisis, due to lack of skill and understanding, exacerbated the depth of the crisis.  Northern Rock should have been taken in to public ownership the moment it was clear that it had become insolvent.


In the UK yesterday retail sales data was shocking – down 0.8% when only 0.2% was expected.  The FTSE was down 44 points at 5677.  Sentiment was poor. Concern over EU sovereign data builds by the day and despite soothing words from Merkel, Hollande Juncker, Rhen and Draghi that everything will be alright on the night over Greece, I have yet to meet anyone who is really convinced.  Next Tuesday we should hear unequivocally whether Greece gets its €31.5 billion bail-out from the Troika, which it desperately needs.  Greece has issued 3 month bills this week to stay alive, but to rely on such unsustainably flabby borrowing facilities of that nature must be folly in the long run. 


Despite Qatar’s concerns over the magnitude of the Xstrata gargantuan bonuses, the merger with Glencore is expected to be consummated next Tuesday, with Sir John Bond is likely to disappear as chairman of Xstrata and the agreed departure of CEO Mick Davis in 6 months time will be confirmed.


The LSE posted sales up by 7% at £349 million in the lat trading period and profits up just 1%. The LSE will benefit from buying LCH Clearnet and will be relying on bond issues and IPOS for greater income.  The equity space looks very cramped now with the likes of BATS (CHI-X) and other trading platforms continuing to breathe down the exchange’s neck!



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