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Day Ahead

Thursday, 29 November 2012

Cantor Opening Call
  • The FTSE is called to open up around 25-30 points higher this morning
UK Corporate Announcements
  • Kingfisher reports a Q3 total retail profit of £257m, against forecasts of £259m seen, and states that it has delayed some capital spending to next financial year
  • Pennon Group announces an H1 operating profit of £136.3m on revenues of £633.7m and that it had £459m in cash end September
  • Dixons states that it remains cautiously optimistic about the outlook, as H1 LFL sales gained 3% and details an H1 underlying pre-tax loss of £22.2m
  • Marston’s announces full year revenues of £719m up 5.5% and an underlying pre-tax profit of £157.9m and states that it has made an encouraging start to the New fiscal year
  • Hogg Robinson states that the full year is seen broadly in line with the expectations
  • Shaftesbury announces a full year adjusted pre-tax profit of £31.2m and portfolio value up to £1.828bn, up 8.9%
UK Market News
  • The latest Bloomberg poll has the world economy in its ‘best shape’ for 18 months, as the US is expected to avoid the fiscal cliff, albeit with political manoeuvres expected before hand, and as China’s prospects improve
  • BP has been accused of acting with a ‘lack of business integrity’ by US authorities and has been barred from bidding for US Federal contracts
  • Burberry gained yesterday on circling M&A talk
  • French press suggests that Thomas Cook has hired Aforge to advise on a sale of its French unit
  • Invensys late in yesterday’s trading announced that it was selling its rail signalling division to Siemens and plans to return £625m to shareholders
  • The media will continue its self feeding frenzy as the Leveson Inquiry publishes its report at 13:30
  • UK mortgage approvals gained in October, up to 52.9k from 50.4k in September, but still well under the 100k/month average in the 10 years leading up to 2007
  • Nationwide announces that UK November House prices were unchanged for the month, and stand down 1.2% year on year, and sees prices falling modestly next year
  • Rio Tinto states that it was targeting additional savings of $5bn by the end of 2014 to ‘roll back the unsustainable cost increases of the past few years’
  • Assange is likely to get back in the headlines as he has a ‘chronic lung infection’ ‘which could get worse at any moment’ according to the Ecuadorean ambassador and that he was suffering from living ‘in a confined space’
FTSE 100 Movers
UK Analyst Upgrades
  • Invensys Pt Raised To 295P Vs 230P At Deutsche Bank
  • United Utilities Raised to Equalweight at Barclays
  • Invensys Raised To Overweight From Equalweight At Barclays
UK Analyst Cuts
  • BSkyB Cut to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies
  • Mitchells & Butlers Cut to Neutral from Buy at Nomura
  • Man Group Pt Cut To 73P Vs 80P At Morgan Stanley
UK Insider Buying
  • Bp Plc, (BP/), 1 insider(s) bought 11630 shares, £4.3
  • Cape Plc, (CIU), 1 insider(s) bought 15000 shares, £1.85
  • Cls Holdings Plc, (CLI), 1 insider(s) bought 9487 shares, £6.6
  • F&C Asset Management P, (FCAM), 1 insider(s) bought 54142 shares, £0.99
  • Grainger Plc, (GRI), 1 insider(s) bought 100000 shares, £1.13
  • Johnson Matthey Plc, (JMAT), 1 insider(s) bought 2000 shares, £22.74
  • Mitchells & Butlers Plc, (MAB), 1 insider(s) bought 45800 shares, £3.18
  • Sdl Plc, (SDL), 2 insider(s) bought 175532 shares, £4.39
  • Thomas Cook Group Plc, (TCG), 1 insider(s) bought 500000 shares, £0.23
UK Insider Selling
  • Compass Group Plc, (CPG), 5 insider(s) sold 778386 shares, £7.19
  • Kcom Group Plc, (KCOM),  insider(s) sold 456725 shares, £0.69
Global Footprint
Major European Companies Reporting
  • National Bank of Greece, Q3, -0.010
European Market Summary
  • The FT details that Deutsche Bank has now made a provision for a possible settlement with regulators on the Libor allegations
  • The Dutch prime minister has stated that Greece may need additional financial help if it is to stay in the euro, seemingly softening his previous hard stance that included a willingness to let Greece exit the euro
  • Italy is to sell up to €6bn in bonds today at 11:00, Sweden sells Sek5bn at 11:03
Major US Stock Movers After Hours
  • Abbot Labs announces that it is to spin off its Abbvie unit, with trading to start on January 2nd (ABBV) with Abbot Labs shareholders getting one for one
  • Disney gained 1% as it announced it was increasing its annual dividend by 25%
  • Infoblox gained 12% after hours as it announces that it sees its full year earnings well ahead of the forecasts
  • Tivo fell 3% despite announcing an unexpected Q3 profit, as it posts a Verizon Patent Settlement, the stock had gained 6% in regular hours on early suggestions of a surprise boost
  • Aeroposatle states that it was not satisfied with the overall trend in business and falls 6% in late trading as it details Q4 numbers under the forecasts
  • La-Z-Boy came off 13% as the furniture maker misses estimates for Q2 sales
S&P 500 Companies Reporting
  • Kroger & Co, Q3, 0.427, Tiffany & Co, Q3, 0.630
US Market News
  • President Obama has stated that he still belives that parties can agree on a budget framework and the House speaker also states that he remains optimistic that they will avert the fiscal cliff ‘sooner or later’
  • Hewlett Packard has been cut to Baa1 from A3 by Moody’s with a negative outlook citing increased competition and ‘execution challenges’
  • NCR announces it is to buy Retalix for $650m
Overnight Market News
  • Toyota details that October production in October fell by 61% to 30,591 units, while Nissan saw production down 44%, as the Chinese economic siege mentality on the disputed islands continues to put pressure on the Japanese government
  • People’s Insurance Company is due to start trading in Hong Kong tomorrow, it is expected to raise around $3.6bn and be the largest IPO in Hong Kong for two years
  • A Chinese think tank has called the US warnings that Chinese technology firms pose potential threats to security were a ‘barrier to trade’
Major Global IPOs Due Today
  • Future Land Development Holdings Ltd, (1030), 1418m, HKD 1.45 - 1.79
  • Maple Leaf 2012-II Energy Income LP, (0611898D), 0.142747m, CD 100
FX Summary
  • Argentina has won a US court decision to postpone the effect of the earlier US court ruling that it would be required to pay holders of defaulted bonds next month, if its makes $3bn in scheduled payments on its restructured debt, the court gives February 27 for oral arguments as Argentine appeals the initial ruling
  • Brazil’s central bank leaves interest unchanged at 7.25% ending the run of 10 consecutive rate cuts
  • The US dollar is just off the lows of the month ahead of Geithner’s meeting with Congressional leaders today to discuss the fiscal cliff
Economic Data Due
  • 10:00 Eurozone November Consumer Confidence, -26.9 previous
  • 13:30 US Q3 GDP annualised 2.8% exp. 2.0% previous
  • 13:30 US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, 410k previous
  • 15:00 US October Pending Homes Sales, m/m, 0.8% exp. 0.3% previous
Economic Events
  • EU Trade Ministers meet on pacts with Japan, Canada, Singapore
Eurozone Consumer Confidence
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Footnotes
  • All times given are BST
  • Cantor Call, as at 7:15am
  • S&P Companies Reporting: (BMO) - Before Market Open (AMC) - After Market Close
  • Analyst Changes, as at 6:45am
  • Insider Deals data compiled from Director/PDMR Shareholding forms published in the past 24 hours (ex weekends).
  • Major European Companies defined as those companies in the STOXX Europe 600 Index
  • FTSE 100 Movers, Blue >0.25%, Green <0.25%, Red <-0.25%, Font size dependent on percentage size of move
  • This note is compiled using information / charts from financial data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters, as well as from the general financial / business media
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